Pressure moments
Thresholds whose crossing moves which timeline the system ends up on. Each moment carries a window, a level, and the signals we watch for its approach.
The Western democratic-industrial world
· 49 momentsPressure · CriticalWindow Onset window 6-18 months; conflict duration multi-year
A country crosses from unrest into civil war
- UCDP + ACLED battle-death count 12-month rollingsteady
- territorial-control map changes (government vs insurgent)steady
- state-security-force defection ratesteady
Tips: India's two-layer democracy and civilization, Young-population pressure (one generation), Elite competition and the hundred-year unraveling, The 80-year generational cycle of societiesOpen
Pressure · CriticalWindow Acute phase 6-18 months; policy aftermath multi-year
A grain or food-system shock
- FAO food-price index month-over-monthsteady
- grain-export restriction event count by exporter countrysteady
- fertilizer-price index trajectorysteady
Tips: India's two-layer democracy and civilization, Russia-Ukraine war in Europe, Young-population pressure (one generation), The 80-year generational cycle of societiesOpen
Pressure · CriticalWindow 3-9 months at observable-step window; prelude years
AI capability discontinuity
- frontier model benchmark saturation + new benchmark emergencesteady
- autonomous-agent task-completion rate on real-world browser/code benchmarkssteady
- model-collapse regression indicatorssteady
Tips: US and China — the rising-vs-ruling-power frictionOpen
Pressure · CriticalWindow 6-18 months at discharge window; multi-year prelude
Democratic institutions crack
- Pew/Gallup institutional-trust time seriessteady
- Edelman Trust Barometer annualsteady
- election-infrastructure stress (election-litigation count, poll-worker attrition)steady
Tips: India's two-layer democracy and civilizationOpen
Pressure · CriticalWindow 3-12 months acute phase; multi-year adjustment
The financial system cascades
- US 10y-2y yield curve inversion duration + depthsteady
- HY credit spread blowout + persistencesteady
- trade-finance volume (SWIFT letters-of-credit)steady
Tips: US and China — the rising-vs-ruling-power friction, China's 2500-year dynastic rhythmOpen
Pressure · CriticalWindow Acute phase 12-36 months; restructuring aftermath multi-year
A sovereign-default cascade across multiple countries
- named sovereign-default event count 12-24 months rollingsteady
- IMF emergency-program activation countsteady
- EM-sovereign CDS spread + GEM composite trajectorysteady
Tips: The long-term debt supercycle (about 50-75 years), The empire rise-and-fall cycle (about 250 years), US and China — the rising-vs-ruling-power friction, The 80-year generational cycle of societiesOpen
Pressure · CriticalWindow Formation window 1-5 years; political-force phase multi-decade
An ideological unification moment
- polling-support unification events (shift from fragmented to >25% unified)steady
- leadership-consolidation + rival-faction defeat eventssteady
- political-program articulation events (manifestos, media canon)steady
Tips: India's two-layer democracy and civilization, Young-population pressure (one generation), The 80-year generational cycle of societies, Elite competition and the hundred-year unravelingOpen
Pressure · CriticalWindow Acute phase 6-24 months; infrastructure reconfiguration multi-year
Energy supply is weaponized geopolitically
- named-cutoff event count by major suppliersteady
- spot-vs-contract energy price divergencesteady
- substitute-sourcing announcement + capex trajectorysteady
Tips: Russia-Ukraine war in Europe, Russia's Orthodox-mystical thread — Byzantium to today, US and China — the rising-vs-ruling-power friction, Young-population pressure (one generation)Open
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Multi-year threshold-approach; discrete threshold-cross; multi-decade downstream
A biodiversity cascade threshold is crossed
- IUCN red-list upgrades + Critically-Endangered additionssteady
- Living Planet Index composite trajectorysteady
- CBD GBF protected-area + OECM reportssteady
Tips: —Open
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Event discrete; downstream multi-year to permanent
A chemical, biological, or nuclear agent is used
- OPCW investigation + attribution eventssteady
- nuclear-test or nuclear-signaling events by state actorssteady
- state-sponsored CBRN-assassination attributionsteady
Tips: US and China — the rising-vs-ruling-power friction, Russia's Orthodox-mystical thread — Byzantium to today, Russia-Ukraine war in Europe, The 80-year generational cycle of societiesOpen
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Event discrete; sustained relocation multi-year; political aftermath multi-decade
A climate event displaces over a million people
- IDMC + UNHCR displacement-count events crossing >1M thresholdsteady
- climate-attribution confidence (WWA + similar rapid-attribution studies)steady
- receiving-region political-stress indicators (polling, policy response)steady
Tips: India's two-layer democracy and civilization, Young-population pressure (one generation)Open
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Trigger window multi-year; downstream effects decadal
A climate tipping point fires
- global mean surface temperature 10yr running mean vs +1.5°Csteady
- Arctic September sea-ice extent trajectorysteady
- AMOC strength (observational arrays)steady
Tips: —Open
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Decision event discrete; managed-retreat multi-decade
A coastal city or settlement is abandoned
- named-city managed-retreat or capital-move announcementssteady
- insurance-withdrawal events in coastal zones (NFIP, state-level)steady
- property-value cascade events in coastal real estatesteady
Tips: India's two-layer democracy and civilizationOpen
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Acute phase days-weeks; sector-restructuring multi-month
A correlated cross-border bank run
- deposit-flight event count at scalesteady
- interbank funding spreads (TED spread + LIBOR equivalents, FRA-OIS)steady
- central-bank emergency-liquidity-facility activation eventssteady
Tips: The short-term business and credit cycle (about 5-10 years), The long-term debt supercycle (about 50-75 years), The 80-year generational cycle of societiesOpen
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Event discrete; trust-cliff + provenance-infrastructure response multi-year
A deepfake triggers a political or kinetic event
- named-synthetic-media incident count attributed to political crisessteady
- C2PA + content-provenance adoption ratesteady
- election-period synthetic-media incident countsteady
Tips: US and China — the rising-vs-ruling-power friction, Russia's Orthodox-mystical thread — Byzantium to today, India's two-layer democracy and civilization, The great technology wave (about 50 years)Open
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Event discrete; policy aftermath multi-year
A deliberate attack on a water system
- named-attack event count on water-sector infrastructuresteady
- state-sponsored APT detection in water-sector networkssteady
- cyber-defense + physical-defense budget for water utilitiessteady
Tips: US and China — the rising-vs-ruling-power friction, Russia's Orthodox-mystical thread — Byzantium to todayOpen
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Event discrete; aftermath multi-year
A failed coup attempt
- military-mobilization event by non-sanctioned factionsteady
- state-counter-mobilization + loyal-force responsesteady
- faction-defeat or standoff resolution eventsteady
Tips: Russia's Orthodox-mystical thread — Byzantium to today, Young-population pressure (one generation), Elite competition and the hundred-year unraveling, Russia-Ukraine war in EuropeOpen
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Event discrete; aftermath multi-year to multi-decade
A high-profile political assassination
- political-threat-report volume to protective servicessteady
- polling data on political-dehumanization language acceptancesteady
- firearm + lone-actor plot interdictions by security servicessteady
Tips: India's two-layer democracy and civilization, Russia's Orthodox-mystical thread — Byzantium to today, The 80-year generational cycle of societies, Elite competition and the hundred-year unraveling, Russia-Ukraine war in Europe, US and China — the rising-vs-ruling-power frictionOpen
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Event discrete; policy aftermath multi-year
A lab-leak or engineered-pathogen incident
- BSL-3/4 facility accident reportssteady
- dual-use research of concern (DURC) incident eventssteady
- attribution-grade investigation of novel-pathogen originsteady
Tips: US and China — the rising-vs-ruling-power friction, The great technology wave (about 50 years)Open
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Acute phase 1-4 weeks; recovery multi-month; aftermath multi-year
A large cyber attack with cross-sector contagion
- cross-sector-ransomware event count per quartersteady
- zero-day-with-wide-deployment eventssteady
- supply-chain compromise events (code-signing, dependency, hardware)steady
Tips: US and China — the rising-vs-ruling-power friction, Russia's Orthodox-mystical thread — Byzantium to today, The great technology wave (about 50 years)Open
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Event discrete; policy aftermath multi-year
A major AI alignment failure incident
- AIAAIC + OECD AI-incident-database event countsteady
- frontier-lab deployment-pause event countsteady
- regulator-action events (EU AI Act enforcement, FTC, state-AG)steady
Tips: US and China — the rising-vs-ruling-power friction, The great technology wave (about 50 years)Open
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Event discrete; recovery hours-days; infrastructure response multi-year
A major AI-system failure cascades to the real world
- named-AI-service outage event countsteady
- cascade-dependent-service downstream outage count per eventsteady
- economic-cost estimate per outage eventsteady
Tips: US and China — the rising-vs-ruling-power friction, The great technology wave (about 50 years)Open
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Event discrete; recovery hours-weeks; policy aftermath multi-year
A major attack on the electrical grid
- named-attack event count on critical-infrastructure sitessteady
- state-sponsored-APT persistent-access detection eventssteady
- substation + transformer theft or sabotage countsteady
Tips: US and China — the rising-vs-ruling-power friction, Russia-Ukraine war in Europe, Russia's Orthodox-mystical thread — Byzantium to todayOpen
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Event discrete; migration + fragmentation multi-year
A major social platform splits or is banned
- named-platform ban + divestiture + split events by major-market jurisdictionssteady
- VPN usage + encrypted-messaging migration metricssteady
- cross-border information-flow restriction eventssteady
Tips: US and China — the rising-vs-ruling-power friction, China's 2500-year dynastic rhythm, Russia's Orthodox-mystical thread — Byzantium to today, India's two-layer democracy and civilization, The great technology wave (about 50 years)Open
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Event discrete; policy aftermath multi-year to multi-decade
A mass-casualty terror attack
- GTD + START global terrorism database event count by severitysteady
- named-attack with >100 fatality thresholdsteady
- subsequent policy-response events (surveillance, military action)steady
Tips: India's two-layer democracy and civilization, US and China — the rising-vs-ruling-power friction, The 80-year generational cycle of societies, Elite competition and the hundred-year unravelingOpen
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Acute phase weeks-months; regime-change discrete; aftermath multi-year
A mass-mobilization regime change
- sustained-mass-mobilization event count + durationsteady
- elite-defection count (ministers, generals, parliamentarians switching sides)steady
- foreign-political-infrastructure (training, funding, diplomatic) support signalssteady
Tips: Russia's Orthodox-mystical thread — Byzantium to today, Young-population pressure (one generation), Elite competition and the hundred-year unraveling, The 80-year generational cycle of societiesOpen
Pressure · ElevatedWindow 2-6 weeks acute phase; multi-month aftermath
A multi-city riot sequence breaks out
- ACLED riot-event count by citysteady
- property-damage economic estimatesteady
- arrest + injury + fatality countssteady
Tips: India's two-layer democracy and civilization, Elite competition and the hundred-year unraveling, Young-population pressure (one generation)Open
Pressure · ElevatedWindow 2-16 weeks acute phase; multi-year prelude; aftermath multi-year
A nationwide protest wave sustains for weeks
- ACLED protest-event count 4-week rollingsteady
- cumulative-participation estimate as % of national populationsteady
- cross-city mobilization count (how many cities with >10k events)steady
Tips: India's two-layer democracy and civilization, Elite competition and the hundred-year unraveling, Young-population pressure (one generation), The 80-year generational cycle of societiesOpen
Pressure · ElevatedWindow 1-8 weeks acute; multi-month political aftermath
A nationwide strike paralyzes a major economy
- sector-coordinated-strike-call countsteady
- transportation-services shutdown durationsteady
- essential-services (health, energy, water) strike participationsteady
Tips: India's two-layer democracy and civilization, Elite competition and the hundred-year unraveling, Young-population pressure (one generation), The 80-year generational cycle of societiesOpen
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Rupture event discrete; downstream multi-year to multi-decade
A region declares or attempts secession
- secession-referendum announcement + conduct + resultsteady
- regional-leadership declaration-of-independence eventsteady
- state-response posture (negotiation, suppression, military deployment)steady
Tips: India's two-layer democracy and civilization, Russia's Orthodox-mystical thread — Byzantium to today, Russia-Ukraine war in Europe, Elite competition and the hundred-year unravelingOpen
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Single-year surge discrete; political aftermath multi-year
A single-year migration surge event
- destination-country annual-arrival count exceeding thresholdssteady
- border-encounter event countsteady
- named-crisis migration-flow attributionsteady
Tips: Young-population pressure (one generation), Russia-Ukraine war in Europe, India's two-layer democracy and civilizationOpen
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Event 24-72 hours; consolidation 30 days; regime-duration multi-year
A successful coup
- military-mobilization event near capitalsteady
- state-media takeover eventsteady
- incumbent-leader detention or exile eventsteady
Tips: Russia's Orthodox-mystical thread — Byzantium to today, Young-population pressure (one generation), Elite competition and the hundred-year unravelingOpen
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Event discrete; regime-persistence multi-decade
A trust-cliff in institutions, media, or experts
- Gallup + Edelman + Pew trust-barometer stepped-decline eventssteady
- parallel-expertise institution growth (alt-media, alt-health, alt-science)steady
- conspiracy-adjacent movement scale metricssteady
Tips: India's two-layer democracy and civilization, Russia's Orthodox-mystical thread — Byzantium to today, The 80-year generational cycle of societies, Elite competition and the hundred-year unravelingOpen
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Multi-year surveillance window; discrete amplification event; multi-year downstream regime
A zoonotic spillover amplifies to pandemic risk
- H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b dairy-cattle outbreak scope + bovine-to-human transmission eventssteady
- WHO IHR notifications of novel-pathogen clusterssteady
- Nextstrain phylogenetic reconstruction of mammalian-adaptation mutationssteady
Tips: —Open
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Event discrete; multi-month investigation + prosecution; multi-year legitimacy aftermath
An attempt to physically seize government by force
- named-conspirator or named-group organization + mobilization signalssteady
- proximity to contested election, succession, or constitutional-crisis momentsteady
- state-security posture (defensive deployment, intelligence warnings)steady
Tips: The 80-year generational cycle of societies, Elite competition and the hundred-year unravelingOpen
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Electoral-cycle discrete; aftermath multi-year legitimacy effects
An election cycle produces widespread kinetic violence
- poll-station attack count + casualty count during electoral windowsteady
- candidate-assassination count by cyclesteady
- voter-intimidation report volumesteady
Tips: India's two-layer democracy and civilization, Young-population pressure (one generation), Elite competition and the hundred-year unravelingOpen
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Threshold event discrete; downstream multi-year to multi-decade
An insurgent group controls meaningful territory
- territorial-control-map update frequency + area-coveragesteady
- insurgent-tax, insurgent-court, insurgent-service administration eventssteady
- state-force withdrawal or defeat events in the contested areasteady
Tips: India's two-layer democracy and civilization, Young-population pressure (one generation), Elite competition and the hundred-year unravelingOpen
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Event discrete; arms-race acceleration multi-year
Autonomous weapons used at scale
- autonomous-weapon use event count with human-in-loop statussteady
- swarm-engagement event countsteady
- autonomous-target-selection + fatality attribution eventssteady
Tips: US and China — the rising-vs-ruling-power friction, Russia's Orthodox-mystical thread — Byzantium to today, Russia-Ukraine war in Europe, The great technology wave (about 50 years)Open
Pressure · ElevatedWindow 3-7 year codification phase; cumulative over multi-decade institutional buildout
Global health governance architecture codifies
- WHO Pandemic Agreement adoption + ratification countssteady
- IHR 2024 amendment opt-out/reservation countsteady
- CEPI 100-day mission real-pathogen validationsteady
Tips: —Open
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Acute phase weeks-months; regime consolidation multi-year
Mass arrests of opposition figures
- opposition-figure arrest count per monthsteady
- foreign-correspondent + domestic-journalist arrest + expulsion eventssteady
- civil-society NGO shutdown + leader-detention eventssteady
Tips: India's two-layer democracy and civilization, China's 2500-year dynastic rhythm, Russia's Orthodox-mystical thread — Byzantium to today, US and China — the rising-vs-ruling-power friction, Elite competition and the hundred-year unravelingOpen
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Multi-year scaling phase; regime-persistence multi-decade or discharge via conflict
Paramilitary groups mobilize openly
- named-militia-group membership + recruitment estimatessteady
- armed-rally event count + sizesteady
- paramilitary firearm + weapons-training-course enrollmentsteady
Tips: India's two-layer democracy and civilization, Russia's Orthodox-mystical thread — Byzantium to today, Russia-Ukraine war in Europe, Elite competition and the hundred-year unraveling, The 80-year generational cycle of societiesOpen
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Event discrete; policy aftermath multi-year
Undersea cable or pipeline sabotage with attribution
- named-sabotage-event count with attribution evidencesteady
- insurance-premium increase for cable + pipeline operatorssteady
- military-escort posture change (navy patrols on cables)steady
Tips: US and China — the rising-vs-ruling-power friction, Russia's Orthodox-mystical thread — Byzantium to today, Russia-Ukraine war in EuropeOpen
Pressure · BuildingWindow Slow baseline-shift over 10-30 years; discrete threshold-crossings per country; multi-generation downstream
A country crosses a fertility cliff
- WB + UN WPP TFR projections per countrysteady
- births-per-year absolute number by major-economy countrysteady
- fertility-policy intervention events (incentive + childcare + housing)steady
Tips: China's 2500-year dynastic rhythm, Young-population pressure (one generation), India's two-layer democracy and civilization, The 80-year generational cycle of societiesOpen
Pressure · BuildingWindow 3-10 year consolidation phase
An authoritarian paradigm crystallizes
- executive-power consolidation events (constitutional revisions, emergency powers)steady
- judicial-capture metrics (court packing, independence degradation)steady
- press-freedom index trajectory (RSF, Freedom House)steady
Tips: US and China — the rising-vs-ruling-power friction, China's 2500-year dynastic rhythm, India's two-layer democracy and civilization, Russia's Orthodox-mystical thread — Byzantium to todayOpen
Pressure · BuildingWindow Slow threshold-approach over 5-15 years; discrete threshold-cross; multi-decade downstream
Antimicrobial resistance crosses a crisis threshold
- WHO GLASS surveillance trajectory + priority-pathogen declarationssteady
- pan-resistant isolate detection events in major-economy health systemssteady
- antibiotic-pipeline investment + approval trajectorysteady
Tips: India's two-layer democracy and civilizationOpen
Pressure · BuildingWindow Slow threshold-crossing over 3-10 years; regime-persistence multi-decade
Political violence becomes routine
- legislator-threat-report count year-over-yearsteady
- poll-worker + election-infrastructure threat countsteady
- journalist + judiciary threat + assault countsteady
Tips: India's two-layer democracy and civilization, The 80-year generational cycle of societies, Elite competition and the hundred-year unravelingOpen
Pressure · BuildingWindow Slow baseline-shift over 3-10 years; regime persistence multi-decade
Rising lone-actor mass-casualty events
- FBI active-shooter 5yr rolling average + current yearsteady
- mass-casualty-event with manifesto count per yearsteady
- online-radicalization pipeline platform-shift eventssteady
Tips: The 80-year generational cycle of societies, Young-population pressure (one generation), Elite competition and the hundred-year unravelingOpen
Pressure · BuildingWindow 5-15 year transition phase; acute inflection 2-5 years
The energy transition accelerates
- global solar + wind + storage deployment vs IEA-NZE scenariosteady
- battery-cell cost curve + manufacturing capacitysteady
- grid-flexibility investment + interconnection queuesteady
Tips: US and China — the rising-vs-ruling-power frictionOpen
Pressure · BuildingWindow 5-15 year stall; climate predictions revise over that span
The energy transition stalls
- sustained interconnection queue growth without clearancesteady
- critical-mineral supply constraint pricingsteady
- clean-energy permit timelinessteady
Tips: US and China — the rising-vs-ruling-power frictionOpen
US and China — the rising-vs-ruling-power friction
· 7 momentsPressure · ElevatedWindow Rule-event discrete; industry adaptation multi-year
A chip embargo escalates materially
- named-regulatory-rule publication events (BIS, EU, EAR, Commerce Export)steady
- equipment-sanction scope expansion eventssteady
- counter-sanction + material-ban announcement eventssteady
Tips: The Western democratic-industrial world, China's 2500-year dynastic rhythm, The chip boom-bust (2 to 4 years), The great technology wave (about 50 years)Open
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Trigger event discrete; downstream regime multi-year
A formal geopolitical de-escalation
- formal arms-control agreement signaturessteady
- trade-framework agreements with substantive concessionssteady
- bilateral or multilateral stabilization-pact announcementssteady
Tips: The Western democratic-industrial world, Russia's Orthodox-mystical thread — Byzantium to todayOpen
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Trigger event discrete; multi-year downstream
A formal Taiwan break
- PLA readiness-exercise frequency + scalesteady
- Taiwan-strait incident count + severitysteady
- US Pacific posture (carrier presence, arms transfers, formal statement changes)steady
Tips: China's 2500-year dynastic rhythmOpen
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Trigger event discrete; downstream regime multi-year
A kinetic geopolitical escalation
- direct military engagement events between great powers (any scale)steady
- Taiwan-strait + South-China-Sea close-engagement countsteady
- Baltic + Black-Sea incident countsteady
Tips: Russia's Orthodox-mystical thread — Byzantium to today, The Western democratic-industrial world, China's 2500-year dynastic rhythmOpen
Pressure · ElevatedWindow 2-5 year settling phase
The tariff and trade-rules regime stabilizes
- frequency + magnitude of new tariff actionssteady
- trade-agreement renegotiation outcomessteady
- export-control stability (Entity List, dual-use rule changes)steady
Tips: The Western democratic-industrial world, China's 2500-year dynastic rhythmOpen
Pressure · ElevatedWindow 3-7 year crystallization phase
US-China decoupling crystallizes
- semiconductor supply-chain split (chip-fab geography, EDA stack adoption)steady
- telecom-equipment market split (Huawei + ZTE share of RoW markets)steady
- payment-rail adoption (SWIFT vs CIPS)steady
Tips: China's 2500-year dynastic rhythm, The Western democratic-industrial worldOpen
Pressure · BuildingWindow 5-15 year gradual phase
Dollar reserve-currency fragmentation
- dollar share of global reserves (IMF COFER)steady
- dollar share of trade settlement (SWIFT currency breakdown)steady
- bilateral yuan + ruble + real settlement agreementssteady
Tips: The Western democratic-industrial worldOpen
India's two-layer democracy and civilization
· 2 momentsPressure · ElevatedWindow Discrete event; multi-month aftermath; multi-year prelude
Communal violence discharges
- ACLED communal-violence event countsteady
- inter-community mobilization events + state responsesteady
- hate-speech volume on major platforms + state responsesteady
Tips: The Western democratic-industrial worldOpen
Pressure · BuildingWindow Formation phase 3-10 years; political-force phase multi-decade
A religious movement scales into political force
- religious-movement political-program articulation eventssteady
- candidate-fielding + election-success by religiously-anchored partiessteady
- policy-capture events (education, judicial, cultural)steady
Tips: The Western democratic-industrial world, Russia's Orthodox-mystical thread — Byzantium to today, The 80-year generational cycle of societiesOpen
Russia's Orthodox-mystical thread — Byzantium to today
· 1 momentThe empire rise-and-fall cycle (about 250 years)
· 1 momentRussia-Ukraine war in Europe
· 2 momentsPressure · CriticalWindow 3-18 months from mediator-track activation to signed geometry
A specific ceasefire or armistice shape takes hold
- mediator-track-depth (named-lead + rounds + working-text)steady
- both-sides-force-generation-stress (recruitment vs attrition deltas)steady
- external-pressure-alignment (G7 + major-neutral posture convergence)steady
Tips: US and China — the rising-vs-ruling-power frictionOpen
Pressure · ElevatedWindow weeks to months at threshold-crossing window; multi-year accumulation prior
A country-level stress cliff forces a sudden policy or leadership shift
- manpower-cliff proxies (recruitment-shortfall + mobilization-law changes + mercenary-dependency)steady
- economic-cliff proxies (reserves-depletion + currency-devaluation + fiscal-breakeven oil-price gaps)steady
- elite-cohesion proxies (public elite dissent + succession rumors + security-service reshuffles)steady
Tips: China's 2500-year dynastic rhythm, Russia's Orthodox-mystical thread — Byzantium to today, The Western democratic-industrial worldOpen