A successful coup

Window: Event 24-72 hours; consolidation 30 days; regime-duration multi-year

LevelElevated

What this is

Successful transfer of political authority through unconstitutional action by military, security services, or elite factions. F-CT-8 τ-discharge at the civilian-military grain boundary. Marker: new regime consolidates control over presidential palace, state media, military command within 72 hours; new government holds for >30 days.

What to watch

  • military-mobilization event near capitalsteady
  • state-media takeover eventsteady
  • incumbent-leader detention or exile eventsteady

Cycles that can trigger it

The Western democratic-industrial worldPhase: Rest · 0 predictions
Elite competition and the hundred-year unravelingPhase: Rest · 0 predictions
Young-population pressure (one generation)Phase: Rest · 0 predictions
Russia's Orthodox-mystical thread — Byzantium to todayPhase: Rest · 0 predictions

Predictions that turn on it

No predictions mapped yet

Live predictions attach to this moment as the model identifies dependencies.

Historical precedents

  • military-mobilization event near capital
  • state-media takeover event
  • incumbent-leader detention or exile event
  • junta-statement + new-authority announcement
  • foreign-recognition posture + international-response events
Model notes (framework)
The internal taxonomy for pressure moments and their triggering mechanics is documented at the method.