Elite competition and the hundred-year unraveling

Turchin's Structural-Demographic Model (SDM) decomposes polity dynamics into two coupled rhythms: a secular 200-300y wave of state-building then state-decay, and a nested 50y instability wave inside each secular downturn. Drivers: elite overproduction (too many aspirants per elite slot), popular immiseration (median living standard decline), state fiscal distress. When all three stack, political-stress index spikes and the instability wave peaks (civil war, revolution, major regime shift, or state collapse). Seshat Databank N>=8 pre-industrial polities + US quantitatively tracked.

Pressure
Elite competition and the hundred-year unraveling — long cycleElite competition and the hundred-year unraveling: Managed depolarization leads at 45% reality support by 2032.BREAKINGPRESSUREREST20%35%45%Gilded Age climaxRed Scare / unrest peak60s unrest cycleSDM elite-overproduction peakTrust collapse markerNow · 20262032

Predictions in this cycle

global governance

Humanity will eventually unify under a 'Federation of states with an ethical controlling instance' rather than a single conquering empire?

Federation Forms 30 · Empire Rules 70
Reality: A 30%, B 70%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2075
US politics

Second-term tariff regime settles into a stable rate band by Q3 2026?

Rates Stable 50 · Still Volatile 50
Reality: A 50%, B 50%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Sep 2026
US labor

The American working class: wage gains or wage decline?

Wage Gains 52 · Wage Decline 48 · crowd A 58
Reality: A 52%, B 48%. Crowd puts A at 58%. Gap plus 6.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap +6 · crowd 58Dec 2028
US politics

US democratic institutions through 2028: hold or crack?

Hold 62 · Crack 38 · crowd A 70
Reality: A 62%, B 38%. Crowd puts A at 70%. Gap plus 8.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap +8 · crowd 70Dec 2028
US labor

US unemployment rate stays between 3.8% and 4.8% through end of 2026?

Rate Steady 63 · Breaks Band 37
Reality: A 63%, B 37%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2026
US politics

US ICE formal removals exceed 500,000 in fiscal year 2027?

Removals Surge 35 · Fewer Removals 65 · crowd A 42
Reality: A 35%, B 65%. Crowd puts A at 42%. Gap plus 7.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap +7 · crowd 42Mar 2028
US labor

US real median weekly earnings grow by more than 1% from Q4 2024 to Q4 2027?

Wages Gain 60 · Wages Stall 40 · crowd A 55
Reality: A 60%, B 40%. Crowd puts A at 55%. Gap minus 5.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap −5 · crowd 55Mar 2028
us_politics

A US federal court holds at least one top Trump administration official in formal contempt by end of 2027?

Court Rules Contempt 52 · No Contempt 48 · crowd A 44
Reality: A 52%, B 48%. Crowd puts A at 44%. Gap minus 8.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap −8 · crowd 44Jan 2028
US labor

US prime-age (25-54) labor force participation rate stays above 83 percent at every monthly reading in 2027?

Participation Holds 58 · Participation Falls 42 · crowd A 55
Reality: A 58%, B 42%. Crowd puts A at 55%. Gap minus 3.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap −3 · crowd 55Jan 2028

Pressure moments

All →
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Event discrete; policy aftermath multi-year to multi-decade

A mass-casualty terror attack

  • GTD + START global terrorism database event count by severitysteady
  • named-attack with >100 fatality thresholdsteady
  • subsequent policy-response events (surveillance, military action)steady
Tips: Elite competition and the hundred-year unravelingOpen
Pressure · BuildingWindow Slow baseline-shift over 3-10 years; regime persistence multi-decade

Rising lone-actor mass-casualty events

  • FBI active-shooter 5yr rolling average + current yearsteady
  • mass-casualty-event with manifesto count per yearsteady
  • online-radicalization pipeline platform-shift eventssteady
Tips: Elite competition and the hundred-year unravelingOpen
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Event discrete; regime-persistence multi-decade

A trust-cliff in institutions, media, or experts

  • Gallup + Edelman + Pew trust-barometer stepped-decline eventssteady
  • parallel-expertise institution growth (alt-media, alt-health, alt-science)steady
  • conspiracy-adjacent movement scale metricssteady
Tips: Elite competition and the hundred-year unravelingOpen

Movers

All →
actorLeverage

Artist generation (sensitive adapters)

Leverage not yet scored
0
toward A
0
toward B
In 0 predictionsOpen
actorLeverage

Hero generation (civic team-builders)

Leverage not yet scored
0
toward A
0
toward B
In 0 predictionsOpen
actorLeverage

Nomad generation (pragmatic survivors)

Leverage not yet scored
0
toward A
0
toward B
In 0 predictionsOpen
Model notes (framework)

The reconciliation note surfaces when this cycle’s top fork disagrees with the lean of its live child predictions — a sign the cycle’s read is tightening or breaking down.

See the method for how a cycle’s forks are set.