Young-population pressure (one generation)

A youth bulge is a cohort of 15-29 year olds that constitutes >=20 pct of the total adult population (or >=25 pct in acute Heinsohn framing). When this cohort cannot be absorbed into the labor market, higher education, or elite positions, the result is elevated probability of political violence, revolution, civil war, or large-scale emigration. Mechanism: Goldstone emphasizes elite-political coupling (second-sons unable to inherit); Heinsohn emphasizes the demographic-density mechanism directly; Urdal 2006 cross-national regression N>=85 country-decades confirms a statistically significant relationship with civil conflict.

Rest
Young-population pressure (one generation) — long cycleYoung-population pressure (one generation): Managed demographic transition leads at 55% reality support by 2040.BREAKINGPRESSUREREST55%25%20%Developing-world peak bulgeArab Spring cohortSub-Saharan bulge peakEast-Asia inversionNow · 20262040

Predictions in this cycle

pandemic risk

Between 2025 and 2030, at least 2 new global health emergencies will be declared?

Emergencies Declared 90 · Fewer Declared 10
Reality: A 90%, B 10%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2030
geopolitics

Russia-Ukraine war through 2028: ends or continues?

Ends 55 · Continues 45 · crowd A 52
Reality: A 55%, B 45%. Crowd puts A at 52%. Gap minus 3.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap −3 · crowd 52Dec 2028
geopolitics

Russia and Ukraine reach a formal ceasefire or armistice by end of 2027?

Ceasefire Signed 42 · War Continues 58
Reality: A 42%, B 58%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2027
US politics

US ICE formal removals exceed 500,000 in fiscal year 2027?

Removals Surge 35 · Fewer Removals 65 · crowd A 42
Reality: A 35%, B 65%. Crowd puts A at 42%. Gap plus 7.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap +7 · crowd 42Mar 2028
geopolitics

Russia-Ukraine territorial change during 2027 stays small — less than two percentage points of Ukraine's area shifts in either direction?

Lines Steady 65 · Lines Move 35 · crowd A 57
Reality: A 65%, B 35%. Crowd puts A at 57%. Gap minus 8.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap −8 · crowd 57Feb 2028
US labor

US prime-age (25-54) labor force participation rate stays above 83 percent at every monthly reading in 2027?

Participation Holds 58 · Participation Falls 42 · crowd A 55
Reality: A 58%, B 42%. Crowd puts A at 55%. Gap minus 3.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap −3 · crowd 55Jan 2028
geopolitics

The Western sanctions regime on Russia stays substantially intact through end of 2028 — fewer than roughly a quarter of the restrictions in force at the start of 2026 come off?

Sanctions Hold 63 · Sanctions Fray 37 · crowd A 73
Reality: A 63%, B 37%. Crowd puts A at 73%. Gap plus 10.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap +10 · crowd 73Dec 2028

Pressure moments

All →
Pressure · BuildingWindow Slow baseline-shift over 3-10 years; regime persistence multi-decade

Rising lone-actor mass-casualty events

  • FBI active-shooter 5yr rolling average + current yearsteady
  • mass-casualty-event with manifesto count per yearsteady
  • online-radicalization pipeline platform-shift eventssteady
Tips: Young-population pressure (one generation)Open
Pressure · CriticalWindow Acute phase 6-18 months; policy aftermath multi-year

A grain or food-system shock

  • FAO food-price index month-over-monthsteady
  • grain-export restriction event count by exporter countrysteady
  • fertilizer-price index trajectorysteady
Tips: Young-population pressure (one generation)Open
Pressure · CriticalWindow Acute phase 6-24 months; infrastructure reconfiguration multi-year

Energy supply is weaponized geopolitically

  • named-cutoff event count by major suppliersteady
  • spot-vs-contract energy price divergencesteady
  • substitute-sourcing announcement + capex trajectorysteady
Tips: Young-population pressure (one generation)Open

Movers

All →
actorLeverage

Artist generation (sensitive adapters)

Leverage not yet scored
0
toward A
0
toward B
In 0 predictionsOpen
actorLeverage

Hero generation (civic team-builders)

Leverage not yet scored
0
toward A
0
toward B
In 0 predictionsOpen
actorLeverage

Nomad generation (pragmatic survivors)

Leverage not yet scored
0
toward A
0
toward B
In 0 predictionsOpen
Model notes (framework)

The reconciliation note surfaces when this cycle’s top fork disagrees with the lean of its live child predictions — a sign the cycle’s read is tightening or breaking down.

See the method for how a cycle’s forks are set.