The Western democratic-industrial world
15 interacting substrates (institutions, information, climate, finance, biodiversity, zoonotic, labor, housing, trust, demography, energy, supply-chain, AI, geopolitics, culture) where friction between substrates drives cascade pressure.
Predictions in this cycle
AI content provenance
By end of 2028, most new smartphone photos will ship with built-in cryptographic proof of origin?
Proof Shipped 65 · No Proof 35
Reality: A 65%, B 35%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2028
AI model qualityBy end of 2029, a major AI lab will publicly admit its model got worse because training data was contaminated by AI output?
Admitted Publicly 50 · Never Admitted 50
Reality: A 50%, B 50%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2029
AI content economyBy end of 2028, a sudden crash will wipe out at least one AI content-farm or AI-arbitrage sector?
Sector Crashes 40 · No Crash 60
Reality: A 40%, B 60%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2028
AI authenticity industryBy end of 2030, global spend on AI watermarking and content-authenticity services will exceed $10 billion a year?
Market Explodes 60 · Market Stalls 40
Reality: A 60%, B 40%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2030
AI content metadata standardsBy end of 2029, 'human-written / AI-written / human+AI collaboration' will be a required metadata field in major standards?
Required Field 55 · Still Optional 45
Reality: A 55%, B 45%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2029
AI competitive positioningBy end of 2027, at least 2 major AI companies will differentiate themselves on 'content provenance' as a selling point?
Provenance Sells 55 · No Pivot 45
Reality: A 55%, B 45%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2027
AI content provenanceBy end of 2028, Wikipedia-style reference sites will carry formal 'human-written only' certification?
Humans Certified 70 · No Certification 30
Reality: A 70%, B 30%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2028
AI publisher economicsBy end of 2027, big news publishers will collectively earn over $2 billion a year licensing their content to AI companies?
Licensing Boom 65 · Modest Deals 35
Reality: A 65%, B 35%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2027
AI governanceBy end of 2029, at least 10 new countries will have AI safety agencies with real audit power over frontier labs?
Regulators Rise 70 · Patchwork Rules 30
Reality: A 70%, B 30%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2029
Search and web trafficBy end of 2028, 40% or more of Google / Bing searches will end at an AI answer with no click to the source?
Answers Win 80 · Clicks Hold 20
Reality: A 80%, B 20%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2028
AI training data provenanceBy end of 2027, 'pre-AI' text archives will be officially certified and marketed as premium training data?
Clean Priced 55 · No Premium 45
Reality: A 55%, B 45%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2027
Scientific publishing integrityBy end of 2028, top science journals will require cryptographic 'who wrote what, and whether AI helped' metadata on every submission?
Metadata Required 55 · Policy Soft 45
Reality: A 55%, B 45%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2028
AI copyright lawBy end of 2027, US courts will have settled whether AI companies owe news publishers compulsory royalties?
Royalties Settled 50 · Still Open 50
Reality: A 50%, B 50%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2027
Human-verified content economyBy end of 2028, subscription newsletters and expert-attested journalism will have doubled their 2024 reader base?
Readership Doubles 60 · Flat Growth 40
Reality: A 60%, B 40%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2028
biodiversity collapseBy end of 2030, over a thousand new species will be marked 'Critically Endangered' on the IUCN Red List?
Listings Surge 80 · Modest Growth 20
Reality: A 80%, B 20%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2030
pollinator collapseBy 2030, at least one more North American bumblebee species will get formal Endangered listing?
Bee Listed 75 · Not Listed 25
Reality: A 75%, B 25%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2030
biodiversity financeBiodiversity finance will fall far short of the $20B / $30B / year targets?
Funding Short 90 · Targets Hit 10
Reality: A 90%, B 10%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2030
biodiversity monitoringBy 2028, DNA-from-air environmental monitoring will be official methodology in at least 5 countries?
Method Adopted 70 · Not Adopted 30
Reality: A 70%, B 30%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2028
ecosystem reorganizationBy 2030, at least 3 'ecological release' events will be formally documented with measurable dynamics?
Events Documented 65 · None Documented 35
Reality: A 65%, B 35%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2030
wildlife tradeBy 2028-2029, the global wildlife trade treaty (CITES) will add 50+ more species to its restriction lists?
Additions Pass 85 · Fewer Added 15
Reality: A 85%, B 15%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Jun 2029
pollinator collapseWestern Monarch butterflies will stay below 30,000 overwintering through 2030?
Monarchs Low 85 · Monarchs Rebound 15
Reality: A 85%, B 15%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Mar 2030
coral reef collapseBy 2030, Great Barrier Reef coral cover will drop below 15% average?
Reef Collapses 75 · Reef Holds 25
Reality: A 75%, B 25%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2030
amphibian extinctionBy 2030, at least 3 chytrid-affected amphibian species will go extinct in the wild?
Species Lost 70 · Species Hold 30
Reality: A 70%, B 30%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2030
de-extinction policyBy 2030, IUCN will formally recognize 'biobank-preserved' or 'de-extinction candidate' as a species-status category?
Category Added 55 · Not Recognized 45
Reality: A 55%, B 45%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2030
protected-area policyBy 2030, '30x30' targets will claim success — but most 'new protection' will be weak paper parks?
Paper Victory 85 · Real Protection 15
Reality: A 85%, B 15%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2030
biodiversity collapseBy 2028, the global index of wild-vertebrate populations will show deeper decline than 2024's '73% lost' baseline?
Decline Deepens 85 · Decline Slows 15
Reality: A 85%, B 15%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2028
Arctic ecosystem shiftsBy 2030, Arctic ice-dependent seal populations will continue falling?
Seals Falling 75 · Seals Hold 25
Reality: A 75%, B 25%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2030
conservation ethicsBy 2030, at least one G20 country or major funder will publicly list species they're giving up on?
Triage Begins 45 · No Triage 55
Reality: A 45%, B 55%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2030
climate changeBy 2032, average global warming will cross 1.5°C on a 10-year basis?
Crossed 1.5C 90 · Below Threshold 10
Reality: A 90%, B 10%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2034
climate changeGlobal CO2 emissions will peak this decade — but decline will be far too slow for 1.5°C?
Peak Too Slow 85 · Faster Decline 15
Reality: A 85%, B 15%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2032
Arctic sea iceThe Arctic will see its first ice-free September between 2028 and 2038?
Ice-Free Soon 80 · Later Or Never 20
Reality: A 80%, B 20%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Sep 2038
ocean circulationThe Atlantic ocean current (AMOC) will weaken but not collapse before 2050?
Weakens Steadily 70 · Collapse Or Steady 30
Reality: A 70%, B 30%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2045
pandemic riskBy 2030, H5N1 bird flu will have caused at least one sustained human-to-human transmission cluster?
Cluster Occurs 40 · No Cluster 60
Reality: A 40%, B 60%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2030
biotech economyBetween 2026 and 2028, overcapacity will trigger 3 or more major mRNA vaccine plant closures?
Plants Close 80 · Capacity Holds 20
Reality: A 80%, B 20%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2028
pandemic surveillanceBy 2030, the global pathogen sequence database will exceed 30 million sequences?
Database Grows 90 · Falls Short 10
Reality: A 90%, B 10%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2030
antimicrobial resistanceBy 2028, antimicrobial resistance will be recognized as a standing global emergency with its own governing body?
Body Established 40 · Status Quo 60
Reality: A 40%, B 60%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2028
pandemic riskBy 2032, a new coronavirus will be detected in humans — but won't spark a pandemic?
Found Contained 65 · None Or Pandemic 35
Reality: A 65%, B 35%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2032
pandemic aftermathLong-COVID research funding will crash 50%+ by 2029?
Funding Crashes 80 · Funding Holds 20
Reality: A 80%, B 20%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2029
pandemic governanceBy 2028, the WHO pathogen-sharing system will face its first major real-world test?
System Tested 65 · Still Untested 35
Reality: A 65%, B 35%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2028
pandemic governanceBy mid-2026, the WHO Pandemic Agreement will be formally adopted?
Agreement Adopted 70 · Agreement Stalls 30
Reality: A 70%, B 30%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0May 2026
pandemic governanceBy 2026, 8 or more countries will have formally rejected parts of the 2024 international health rules?
Rules Rejected 80 · Rules Hold 20
Reality: A 80%, B 20%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2026
pandemic preparednessBy 2028, the 100-day pandemic vaccine goal will be hit for first-dose, but not for mass availability?
First-Dose Hit 60 · Goal Missed 40
Reality: A 60%, B 40%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2028
pandemic riskBetween 2025 and 2030, at least 2 new global health emergencies will be declared?
Emergencies Declared 90 · Fewer Declared 10
Reality: A 90%, B 10%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2030
pandemic surveillanceBy 2028, wastewater pathogen monitoring will be standard health infrastructure in 60+ countries?
Standard Everywhere 75 · Patchy Adoption 25
Reality: A 75%, B 25%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2028
pandemic financeBy end of 2027, the Pandemic Fund will have billions in pledges but still struggle to disburse?
Pledged Not Spent 70 · Spending Flows 30
Reality: A 70%, B 30%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2027
pandemic preparednessBy 2035, Africa will produce 60% of its own vaccines (up from 1% in 2021)?
Africa Scales 35 · Africa Short 65
Reality: A 35%, B 65%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2035
pandemic riskBy 2030, at least one declared pandemic emergency will be for a pathogen nobody expected?
Unexpected Pathogen 50 · Known Threats 50
Reality: A 50%, B 50%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2030
banking regulationThe US will finalize Basel III rules by 2028 — in a bank-friendly 'light-touch' form?
Light-Touch Rules 80 · Strict Rules 20
Reality: A 80%, B 20%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Jan 2028
banking concentrationBy 2030, the top-4 US banks will own even more of US deposits?
Concentration Grows 75 · Concentration Holds 25
Reality: A 75%, B 25%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2030
AI in financeBy 2029, big banks will have their first major AI-driven losses — and new rules will follow?
Losses Trigger Rules 75 · No Big Losses 25
Reality: A 75%, B 25%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2029
fintech marketsThe 2025 fintech IPO class (Klarna, Chime, Circle) will underperform the market through 2027?
IPOs Underperform 70 · Market Catches Up 30
Reality: A 70%, B 30%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2027
regional banking stressBetween 2026 and 2028, 3-8 mid-size US banks will fail or be forced to merge?
Mid-Banks Fail 75 · Banks Hold 25
Reality: A 75%, B 25%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2028
non-bank financeBy 2028, non-bank finance will dominate the global financial system (53%+ share)?
Non-Banks Dominate 85 · Banks Hold 15
Reality: A 85%, B 15%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2028
monetary policyThe Fed will hold mostly steady from 2026 — not return to zero rates absent a crisis?
Fed Holds 65 · Fed Pivots 35
Reality: A 65%, B 35%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2027
central bank digital currenciesThe ECB digital euro will launch by 2029 — but adoption will stay below 5%?
Launched Flat 75 · Delayed Or Wider 25
Reality: A 75%, B 25%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2029
commercial real estateUS office real estate stress will peak by 2027 — then slowly recover?
Peak Then Recover 75 · Keeps Deepening 25
Reality: A 75%, B 25%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2030
private creditPrivate credit will have its first major stress test — with 5+ large defaults by 2028?
Defaults Hit 70 · Few Defaults 30
Reality: A 70%, B 30%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2028
stablecoin marketUS stablecoin market will grow 2-4x by 2028 under new regulation?
Market Multiplies 60 · Flat Or Shrinks 40
Reality: A 60%, B 40%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2028
crypto marketsBitcoin and ETH ETFs will hold $250 billion+ by end of 2027?
ETFs Hold 70 · Falls Below 30
Reality: A 70%, B 30%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2027
emerging market sovereign debtBy 2028, 3-5 more emerging-market countries will enter sovereign debt restructuring?
Restructurings Grow 70 · Fewer Defaults 30
Reality: A 70%, B 30%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2028
financeUS private-credit stress visible in bank regulatory data by end of 2026?
Stress Visible 55 · Still Hidden 45
Reality: A 55%, B 45%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2026
US politicsSecond-term tariff regime settles into a stable rate band by Q3 2026?
Rates Stable 50 · Still Volatile 50
Reality: A 50%, B 50%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Sep 2026
climate_energyUS energy transition: acceleration or stall?
Acceleration 55 · Stall 45
Reality: A 55%, B 45%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2028
techAI capability: breakthrough or plateau?
Breakthrough 65 · Plateau 35 · crowd A 70
Reality: A 65%, B 35%. Crowd puts A at 70%. Gap plus 5.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
Gap +5 · crowd 70Dec 2028
US laborThe American working class: wage gains or wage decline?
Wage Gains 52 · Wage Decline 48 · crowd A 58
Reality: A 52%, B 48%. Crowd puts A at 58%. Gap plus 6.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
Gap +6 · crowd 58Dec 2028
US politicsUS democratic institutions through 2028: hold or crack?
Hold 62 · Crack 38 · crowd A 70
Reality: A 62%, B 38%. Crowd puts A at 70%. Gap plus 8.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
Gap +8 · crowd 70Dec 2028
climate_energyClimate costs through 2028: absorbed or breaking?
Absorbed 52 · Breaking 48 · crowd A 40
Reality: A 52%, B 48%. Crowd puts A at 40%. Gap minus 12.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
Gap −12 · crowd 40Dec 2028
techA publicly released AI model passes 50% on FrontierMath by end of 2027?
Threshold Hit 78 · Still Short 22
Reality: A 78%, B 22%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2027
US laborUS unemployment rate stays between 3.8% and 4.8% through end of 2026?
Rate Steady 63 · Breaks Band 37
Reality: A 63%, B 37%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2026
energyPalisades nuclear plant starts generating electricity again by end of 2027?
Plant Restarts 58 · Stays Offline 42
Reality: A 58%, B 42%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2027
US politicsUS ICE formal removals exceed 500,000 in fiscal year 2027?
Removals Surge 35 · Fewer Removals 65 · crowd A 42
Reality: A 35%, B 65%. Crowd puts A at 42%. Gap plus 7.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
Gap +7 · crowd 42Mar 2028
climate_energyUS grid-connected battery storage capacity passes 80 gigawatts by end of 2027?
Storage Scales 58 · Falls Short 42
Reality: A 58%, B 42%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Feb 2028
techAn openly-released AI model holds a top-5 spot on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at some point during 2027?
Open Model Wins 75 · Closed Dominates 25
Reality: A 75%, B 25%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Jan 2028
climate_energyFlorida Citizens Property Insurance policy count stays below 2 million through end of 2027?
Pool Shrinks 72 · Pool Grows 28 · crowd A 60
Reality: A 72%, B 28%. Crowd puts A at 60%. Gap minus 12.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
Gap −12 · crowd 60Dec 2027
techA publicly-released AI model achieves 85% or higher on SWE-bench Verified at some point during 2027?
Benchmark Cleared 70 · Still Short 30 · crowd A 60
Reality: A 70%, B 30%. Crowd puts A at 60%. Gap minus 10.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
Gap −10 · crowd 60Jan 2028
US laborUS real median weekly earnings grow by more than 1% from Q4 2024 to Q4 2027?
Wages Gain 60 · Wages Stall 40 · crowd A 55
Reality: A 60%, B 40%. Crowd puts A at 55%. Gap minus 5.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
Gap −5 · crowd 55Mar 2028
climate_energyCalifornia FAIR Plan policy count stays below 750,000 through end of 2027?
Pool Holds 55 · Pool Swells 45 · crowd A 45
Reality: A 55%, B 45%. Crowd puts A at 45%. Gap minus 10.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
Gap −10 · crowd 45Dec 2027
us_politicsA US federal court holds at least one top Trump administration official in formal contempt by end of 2027?
Court Rules Contempt 52 · No Contempt 48 · crowd A 44
Reality: A 52%, B 48%. Crowd puts A at 44%. Gap minus 8.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
Gap −8 · crowd 44Jan 2028
US laborUS prime-age (25-54) labor force participation rate stays above 83 percent at every monthly reading in 2027?
Participation Holds 58 · Participation Falls 42 · crowd A 55
Reality: A 58%, B 42%. Crowd puts A at 55%. Gap minus 3.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
Gap −3 · crowd 55Jan 2028
Pressure moments
All →Pressure · ElevatedWindow Acute phase days-weeks; sector-restructuring multi-month
A correlated cross-border bank run
- deposit-flight event count at scalesteady
- interbank funding spreads (TED spread + LIBOR equivalents, FRA-OIS)steady
- central-bank emergency-liquidity-facility activation eventssteady
Tips: The Western democratic-industrial worldOpen
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Event discrete; recovery hours-weeks; policy aftermath multi-year
A major attack on the electrical grid
- named-attack event count on critical-infrastructure sitessteady
- state-sponsored-APT persistent-access detection eventssteady
- substation + transformer theft or sabotage countsteady
Tips: The Western democratic-industrial worldOpen
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Acute phase 1-4 weeks; recovery multi-month; aftermath multi-year
A large cyber attack with cross-sector contagion
- cross-sector-ransomware event count per quartersteady
- zero-day-with-wide-deployment eventssteady
- supply-chain compromise events (code-signing, dependency, hardware)steady
Tips: The Western democratic-industrial worldOpen
Movers
All →actorLeverage
Artist generation (sensitive adapters)
Leverage not yet scored0
toward A
toward A
0
toward B
toward B
In 0 predictionsOpen
actorLeverage
Hero generation (civic team-builders)
Leverage not yet scored0
toward A
toward A
0
toward B
toward B
In 0 predictionsOpen
actorLeverage
Nomad generation (pragmatic survivors)
Leverage not yet scored0
toward A
toward A
0
toward B
toward B
In 0 predictionsOpen
Model notes (framework)
The reconciliation note surfaces when this cycle’s top fork disagrees with the lean of its live child predictions — a sign the cycle’s read is tightening or breaking down.
See the method for how a cycle’s forks are set.