A climate tipping point fires
Window: Trigger window multi-year; downstream effects decadal
LevelElevated
What this is
A specific climate subsystem (Arctic sea-ice, AMOC, Amazon dieback, ice-sheet instability) crosses a hysteresis threshold producing a non-reversible regime shift. Operates on climate substrate within Western-democratic-industrial composite. F-CT-15 OBSERVABLE-NON-DEGENERACY: the trigger is a non-gradient boundary-flux event in the climate cycle-space.
What to watch
- global mean surface temperature 10yr running mean vs +1.5°Csteady
- Arctic September sea-ice extent trajectorysteady
- AMOC strength (observational arrays)steady
Cycles that can trigger it
Predictions that turn on it
No predictions mapped yet
Live predictions attach to this moment as the model identifies dependencies.
Historical precedents
- global mean surface temperature 10yr running mean vs +1.5°C
- Arctic September sea-ice extent trajectory
- AMOC strength (observational arrays)
- Amazon dry-season intensity + fire-return interval
- Antarctic + Greenland mass-balance (GRACE-FO)
- CO2 emissions trajectory + reserve commitment metrics
Model notes (framework)
The internal taxonomy for pressure moments and their triggering mechanics is documented at the method.