Mass arrests of opposition figures
Window: Acute phase weeks-months; regime consolidation multi-year
LevelElevated
What this is
A state crosses the threshold of mass arrests of opposition political figures, journalists, academics, civil-society leaders, or protest leaders in a short window (weeks-months). F-CT-8 at the state-opposition grain. The state's security apparatus is weaponized against political competition at scale. Marks regime consolidation or acute defensive-crackdown mode.
What to watch
- opposition-figure arrest count per monthsteady
- foreign-correspondent + domestic-journalist arrest + expulsion eventssteady
- civil-society NGO shutdown + leader-detention eventssteady
Cycles that can trigger it
The Western democratic-industrial worldPhase: Rest · 0 predictions
Elite competition and the hundred-year unravelingPhase: Rest · 0 predictions
China's 2500-year dynastic rhythmPhase: Rest · 0 predictions
India's two-layer democracy and civilizationPhase: Rest · 0 predictions
Russia's Orthodox-mystical thread — Byzantium to todayPhase: Rest · 0 predictions
US and China — the rising-vs-ruling-power frictionPhase: Rest · 0 predictions
Predictions that turn on it
No predictions mapped yet
Live predictions attach to this moment as the model identifies dependencies.
Historical precedents
- opposition-figure arrest count per month
- foreign-correspondent + domestic-journalist arrest + expulsion events
- civil-society NGO shutdown + leader-detention events
- political-prisoner estimate (Amnesty, HRW, local-tracker reports)
- legal-infrastructure capture indicators (prosecutor dismissals, special-court creation)
Model notes (framework)
The internal taxonomy for pressure moments and their triggering mechanics is documented at the method.