US and China — the rising-vs-ruling-power friction
Thucydides-trap rising/ruling power friction with F-CT-8 polycrystalline-τ at the Pacific grain boundary — two different operating systems meeting at trade + tech + military + currency interfaces.
Predictions in this cycle
geopolitics
Taiwan Strait status quo through end of 2027?
Status Quo 68 · Status Breaks 32
Reality: A 68%, B 32%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2027
geopoliticsTaiwan: Peace or Conflict?
Peace 72 · Conflict 28 · crowd A 87
Reality: A 72%, B 28%. Crowd puts A at 87%. Gap plus 15.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
Gap +15 · crowd 87Dec 2028
geopoliticsUS and China: Managed Rivalry or Rupture?
Managed Rivalry 68 · Rupture 32 · crowd A 72
Reality: A 68%, B 32%. Crowd puts A at 72%. Gap plus 4.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
Gap +4 · crowd 72Dec 2028
geopoliticsUS adds 50 or more Chinese companies to its chip-related export control list during 2027?
Fifty Plus Added 60 · Fewer Added 40 · crowd A 65
Reality: A 60%, B 40%. Crowd puts A at 65%. Gap plus 5.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
Gap +5 · crowd 65Mar 2028
geopoliticsUS notifies Congress of at least $5 billion in cumulative arms sales to Taiwan during calendar years 2026 and 2027?
Arms Flow 60 · Arms Slow 40 · crowd A 55
Reality: A 60%, B 40%. Crowd puts A at 55%. Gap minus 5.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
Gap −5 · crowd 55Jan 2028
geopoliticsUS average effective tariff rate on imports from China stays above 30 percent through the end of 2027?
Tariff Stays High 72 · Tariff Falls 28 · crowd A 65
Reality: A 72%, B 28%. Crowd puts A at 65%. Gap minus 7.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
Gap −7 · crowd 65Mar 2028
Pressure moments
All →Pressure · ElevatedWindow Event discrete; recovery hours-weeks; policy aftermath multi-year
A major attack on the electrical grid
- named-attack event count on critical-infrastructure sitessteady
- state-sponsored-APT persistent-access detection eventssteady
- substation + transformer theft or sabotage countsteady
Tips: US and China — the rising-vs-ruling-power frictionOpen
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Acute phase 1-4 weeks; recovery multi-month; aftermath multi-year
A large cyber attack with cross-sector contagion
- cross-sector-ransomware event count per quartersteady
- zero-day-with-wide-deployment eventssteady
- supply-chain compromise events (code-signing, dependency, hardware)steady
Tips: US and China — the rising-vs-ruling-power frictionOpen
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Event discrete; policy aftermath multi-year
Undersea cable or pipeline sabotage with attribution
- named-sabotage-event count with attribution evidencesteady
- insurance-premium increase for cable + pipeline operatorssteady
- military-escort posture change (navy patrols on cables)steady
Tips: US and China — the rising-vs-ruling-power frictionOpen
Movers
All →actorLeverage
Artist generation (sensitive adapters)
Leverage not yet scored0
toward A
toward A
0
toward B
toward B
In 0 predictionsOpen
actorLeverage
Hero generation (civic team-builders)
Leverage not yet scored0
toward A
toward A
0
toward B
toward B
In 0 predictionsOpen
actorLeverage
Nomad generation (pragmatic survivors)
Leverage not yet scored0
toward A
toward A
0
toward B
toward B
In 0 predictionsOpen
Model notes (framework)
The reconciliation note surfaces when this cycle’s top fork disagrees with the lean of its live child predictions — a sign the cycle’s read is tightening or breaking down.
See the method for how a cycle’s forks are set.