Political violence becomes routine

What this is

Threshold crossing where targeted violence (threats, assaults, property attacks, intimidation) against elected officials, poll workers, journalists, and judges becomes routine rather than exceptional. F-CT-9 ADAPTATION-REQUIRED: institutions adapt their security posture; the public adapts its tolerance. Marks shift from episodic to structural — not a single event but regime-change.

What to watch

• legislator-threat-report count year-over-yearsteady
• poll-worker + election-infrastructure threat countsteady
• journalist + judiciary threat + assault countsteady

Cycles that can trigger it

Predictions that turn on it

Historical precedents

• legislator-threat-report count year-over-year
• poll-worker + election-infrastructure threat count
• journalist + judiciary threat + assault count
• political-office exit rate (elected officials leaving due to safety)
• security-budget expansion for elected officials
• polling data on acceptance of political-violence rhetoric