The 80-year generational cycle of societies

Strauss-Howe saeculum (~80-100yr) sequence of four turnings, each ~20yr, driven by generational-cohort succession through four archetypes (Prophet, Nomad, Hero, Artist). First Turning = High (post-crisis renewal; strong institutions, weak individualism). Second = Awakening (institutions attacked, individualism rises). Third = Unraveling (institutions decay, culture fragments). Fourth = Crisis (climactic institutional reset — great war, revolution, or regime rotation). Generational replacement sets the archetype dominant at each stage.

Rest
The 80-year generational cycle of societies — long cycleThe 80-year generational cycle of societies: Civic rupture leads at 40% reality support by 2032.BREAKINGPRESSUREREST30%40%30%Prior crisis onsetPrior crisis climax9/11 catalystGFC + regenerationClimax decade onsetNow · 20262032

Predictions in this cycle

global governance

Humanity will eventually unify under a 'Federation of states with an ethical controlling instance' rather than a single conquering empire?

Federation Forms 30 · Empire Rules 70
Reality: A 30%, B 70%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2075
AI content economy

By end of 2028, a sudden crash will wipe out at least one AI content-farm or AI-arbitrage sector?

Sector Crashes 40 · No Crash 60
Reality: A 40%, B 60%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2028
regional banking stress

Between 2026 and 2028, 3-8 mid-size US banks will fail or be forced to merge?

Mid-Banks Fail 75 · Banks Hold 25
Reality: A 75%, B 25%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2028
geopolitics

Russia-Ukraine war through 2028: ends or continues?

Ends 55 · Continues 45 · crowd A 52
Reality: A 55%, B 45%. Crowd puts A at 52%. Gap minus 3.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap −3 · crowd 52Dec 2028

Pressure moments

All →
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Acute phase days-weeks; sector-restructuring multi-month

A correlated cross-border bank run

  • deposit-flight event count at scalesteady
  • interbank funding spreads (TED spread + LIBOR equivalents, FRA-OIS)steady
  • central-bank emergency-liquidity-facility activation eventssteady
Tips: The 80-year generational cycle of societiesOpen
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Event discrete; policy aftermath multi-year to multi-decade

A mass-casualty terror attack

  • GTD + START global terrorism database event count by severitysteady
  • named-attack with >100 fatality thresholdsteady
  • subsequent policy-response events (surveillance, military action)steady
Tips: The 80-year generational cycle of societiesOpen
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Event discrete; downstream multi-year to permanent

A chemical, biological, or nuclear agent is used

  • OPCW investigation + attribution eventssteady
  • nuclear-test or nuclear-signaling events by state actorssteady
  • state-sponsored CBRN-assassination attributionsteady
Tips: The 80-year generational cycle of societiesOpen

Movers

All →
actorLeverage

Artist generation (sensitive adapters)

Leverage not yet scored
0
toward A
0
toward B
In 0 predictionsOpen
actorLeverage

Hero generation (civic team-builders)

Leverage not yet scored
0
toward A
0
toward B
In 0 predictionsOpen
actorLeverage

Nomad generation (pragmatic survivors)

Leverage not yet scored
0
toward A
0
toward B
In 0 predictionsOpen
Model notes (framework)

The reconciliation note surfaces when this cycle’s top fork disagrees with the lean of its live child predictions — a sign the cycle’s read is tightening or breaking down.

See the method for how a cycle’s forks are set.