Dollar reserve-currency fragmentation

Window: 13 Oct 2031 – 13 Oct 2041

LevelBuilding

What this is

Reduction in dollar share of global reserves + trade-settlement with partial replacement by multi-currency basket (euro + RMB + bilateral settlement + gold + crypto rails). F-CT-8 grain boundary at reserve-currency substrate.

What to watch

  • dollar share of global reserves (IMF COFER)steady
  • dollar share of trade settlement (SWIFT currency breakdown)steady
  • bilateral yuan + ruble + real settlement agreementssteady

Cycles that can trigger it

US and China — the rising-vs-ruling-power frictionPhase: Rest · 0 predictions
The Western democratic-industrial worldPhase: Rest · 0 predictions

Predictions that turn on it

No predictions mapped yet

Live predictions attach to this moment as the model identifies dependencies.

Historical precedents

  • dollar share of global reserves (IMF COFER)
  • dollar share of trade settlement (SWIFT currency breakdown)
  • bilateral yuan + ruble + real settlement agreements
  • central-bank gold accumulation
  • CBDC + crypto cross-border settlement volume
  • sanctions-regime bypass volume
Model notes (framework)
The internal taxonomy for pressure moments and their triggering mechanics is documented at the method.