A mass-mobilization regime change
Window: Acute phase weeks-months; regime-change discrete; aftermath multi-year
LevelElevated
What this is
A regime is replaced through sustained mass mobilization + elite defection + often foreign-aligned political-infrastructure support — the 'color revolution' pattern. Different from coup (no military faction seizure) and insurrection (no violent government seizure). F-CT-8 at the regime-legitimacy grain. Downstream: new government with uncertain capacity; regional-rival counter-mobilization risk.
What to watch
- sustained-mass-mobilization event count + durationsteady
- elite-defection count (ministers, generals, parliamentarians switching sides)steady
- foreign-political-infrastructure (training, funding, diplomatic) support signalssteady
Cycles that can trigger it
The Western democratic-industrial worldPhase: Rest · 0 predictions
Elite competition and the hundred-year unravelingPhase: Rest · 0 predictions
Young-population pressure (one generation)Phase: Rest · 0 predictions
Russia's Orthodox-mystical thread — Byzantium to todayPhase: Rest · 0 predictions
The 80-year generational cycle of societiesPhase: Rest · 0 predictions
Predictions that turn on it
No predictions mapped yet
Live predictions attach to this moment as the model identifies dependencies.
Historical precedents
- sustained-mass-mobilization event count + duration
- elite-defection count (ministers, generals, parliamentarians switching sides)
- foreign-political-infrastructure (training, funding, diplomatic) support signals
- incumbent-regime concession or exile event
- new-government formation + first 100 days signals
Model notes (framework)
The internal taxonomy for pressure moments and their triggering mechanics is documented at the method.