The energy transition stalls
Window: 13 Oct 2031 – 13 Oct 2041
LevelBuilding
What this is
Scale-up of low-carbon generation + storage decelerates below IEA-STEPS baseline due to permitting, grid-interconnect, critical-mineral, or political-capture bottlenecks. Fossil-fuel reserves retain pricing power; climate predictions revise warmer.
What to watch
- sustained interconnection queue growth without clearancesteady
- critical-mineral supply constraint pricingsteady
- clean-energy permit timelinessteady
Cycles that can trigger it
Predictions that turn on it
No predictions mapped yet
Live predictions attach to this moment as the model identifies dependencies.
Historical precedents
- sustained interconnection queue growth without clearance
- critical-mineral supply constraint pricing
- clean-energy permit timelines
- renewables deployment vs plan
- fossil-fuel reserve retention + capex trajectory
- policy-rollback events in major markets
Model notes (framework)
The internal taxonomy for pressure moments and their triggering mechanics is documented at the method.