A region declares or attempts secession
Window: Rupture event discrete; downstream multi-year to multi-decade
LevelElevated
What this is
A sub-national region declares independence, holds a secession referendum with majority support, or physically attempts separation from the parent state. F-CT-8 at the sub-national grain. The state's territorial-integrity binder is directly challenged. Downstream paths: negotiated separation (rare), suppressed (common), civil war (frequent), frozen-conflict (frequent).
What to watch
- secession-referendum announcement + conduct + resultsteady
- regional-leadership declaration-of-independence eventsteady
- state-response posture (negotiation, suppression, military deployment)steady
Cycles that can trigger it
The Western democratic-industrial worldPhase: Rest · 0 predictions
Elite competition and the hundred-year unravelingPhase: Rest · 0 predictions
India's two-layer democracy and civilizationPhase: Rest · 0 predictions
Russia-Ukraine war in EuropePhase: Rest · 0 predictions
Russia's Orthodox-mystical thread — Byzantium to todayPhase: Rest · 0 predictions
Predictions that turn on it
No predictions mapped yet
Live predictions attach to this moment as the model identifies dependencies.
Historical precedents
- secession-referendum announcement + conduct + result
- regional-leadership declaration-of-independence event
- state-response posture (negotiation, suppression, military deployment)
- international-recognition posture (ignore, acknowledge, sanction either side)
- cross-border movement + resource flows
Model notes (framework)
The internal taxonomy for pressure moments and their triggering mechanics is documented at the method.