Russia-Ukraine war in Europe
Russia-Ukraine 2022-present kinetic war as a bounded scaffold with observable force-generation dynamics (both sides), territorial-control measurement (ISW / DeepStateUA / Deepstatemap), mediator architecture (US + Turkey + UAE + China + EU), and settlement geometry (ceasefire / armistice / frozen-conflict-with-concessions / status-quo-ante paths).
Predictions in this cycle
geopolitics
Russia-Ukraine war through 2028: ends or continues?
Ends 55 · Continues 45 · crowd A 52
Reality: A 55%, B 45%. Crowd puts A at 52%. Gap minus 3.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
Gap −3 · crowd 52Dec 2028
geopoliticsRussia and Ukraine reach a formal ceasefire or armistice by end of 2027?
Ceasefire Signed 42 · War Continues 58
Reality: A 42%, B 58%. No market signal.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Gap 0Dec 2027
geopoliticsRussia-Ukraine territorial change during 2027 stays small — less than two percentage points of Ukraine's area shifts in either direction?
Lines Steady 65 · Lines Move 35 · crowd A 57
Reality: A 65%, B 35%. Crowd puts A at 57%. Gap minus 8.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
Gap −8 · crowd 57Feb 2028
geopoliticsThe Western sanctions regime on Russia stays substantially intact through end of 2028 — fewer than roughly a quarter of the restrictions in force at the start of 2026 come off?
Sanctions Hold 63 · Sanctions Fray 37 · crowd A 73
Reality: A 63%, B 37%. Crowd puts A at 73%. Gap plus 10.
Quiet path · not yet modeled
Gap +10 · crowd 73Dec 2028
Pressure moments
All →Pressure · ElevatedWindow Event discrete; recovery hours-weeks; policy aftermath multi-year
A major attack on the electrical grid
- named-attack event count on critical-infrastructure sitessteady
- state-sponsored-APT persistent-access detection eventssteady
- substation + transformer theft or sabotage countsteady
Tips: Russia-Ukraine war in EuropeOpen
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Event discrete; policy aftermath multi-year
Undersea cable or pipeline sabotage with attribution
- named-sabotage-event count with attribution evidencesteady
- insurance-premium increase for cable + pipeline operatorssteady
- military-escort posture change (navy patrols on cables)steady
Tips: Russia-Ukraine war in EuropeOpen
Pressure · ElevatedWindow Event discrete; downstream multi-year to permanent
A chemical, biological, or nuclear agent is used
- OPCW investigation + attribution eventssteady
- nuclear-test or nuclear-signaling events by state actorssteady
- state-sponsored CBRN-assassination attributionsteady
Tips: Russia-Ukraine war in EuropeOpen
Movers
All →actorLeverage
Artist generation (sensitive adapters)
Leverage not yet scored0
toward A
toward A
0
toward B
toward B
In 0 predictionsOpen
actorLeverage
Hero generation (civic team-builders)
Leverage not yet scored0
toward A
toward A
0
toward B
toward B
In 0 predictionsOpen
actorLeverage
Nomad generation (pragmatic survivors)
Leverage not yet scored0
toward A
toward A
0
toward B
toward B
In 0 predictionsOpen
Model notes (framework)
The reconciliation note surfaces when this cycle’s top fork disagrees with the lean of its live child predictions — a sign the cycle’s read is tightening or breaking down.
See the method for how a cycle’s forks are set.