A nationwide protest wave sustains for weeks
Window: 2-16 weeks acute phase; multi-year prelude; aftermath multi-year
LevelElevated
What this is
A protest movement crosses the threshold of sustained multi-week, multi-city mobilization with cumulative participation >1% of national population. F-CT-8 polycrystalline-τ at the state-citizen grain boundary — accumulated grievance-τ discharges into mass-mobilization rather than quiet dissent or institutional-channel resolution. Outcome bifurcates: concession (Timeline-A institutional response) or crackdown (Timeline-B authoritarian response).
What to watch
- ACLED protest-event count 4-week rollingsteady
- cumulative-participation estimate as % of national populationsteady
- cross-city mobilization count (how many cities with >10k events)steady
Cycles that can trigger it
The Western democratic-industrial worldPhase: Rest · 0 predictions
Elite competition and the hundred-year unravelingPhase: Rest · 0 predictions
Young-population pressure (one generation)Phase: Rest · 0 predictions
India's two-layer democracy and civilizationPhase: Rest · 0 predictions
The 80-year generational cycle of societiesPhase: Rest · 0 predictions
Predictions that turn on it
No predictions mapped yet
Live predictions attach to this moment as the model identifies dependencies.
Historical precedents
- ACLED protest-event count 4-week rolling
- cumulative-participation estimate as % of national population
- cross-city mobilization count (how many cities with >10k events)
- work-stoppage economic-cost estimate
- government-response posture (concession vs crackdown signals)
- protest-leadership-arrest count
Model notes (framework)
The internal taxonomy for pressure moments and their triggering mechanics is documented at the method.