A country crosses from unrest into civil war
Window: 13 Apr 2027 – 13 Apr 2028
LevelCritical
What this is
A country crosses the threshold from political unrest + sectarian violence into civil war — defined by sustained kinetic conflict between organized armed groups with ≥1000 battle deaths per year AND government loss of monopoly on legitimate violence across ≥1 major territory. F-CT-8 τ-discharge at the state-cohesion grain. Reversibility window: narrow after first 6-12 months.
What to watch
- UCDP + ACLED battle-death count 12-month rollingsteady
- territorial-control map changes (government vs insurgent)steady
- state-security-force defection ratesteady
Cycles that can trigger it
India's two-layer democracy and civilizationPhase: Rest · 0 predictions
The Western democratic-industrial worldPhase: Rest · 0 predictions
Young-population pressure (one generation)Phase: Rest · 0 predictions
Elite competition and the hundred-year unravelingPhase: Rest · 0 predictions
The 80-year generational cycle of societiesPhase: Rest · 0 predictions
Predictions that turn on it
No predictions mapped yet
Live predictions attach to this moment as the model identifies dependencies.
Historical precedents
- UCDP + ACLED battle-death count 12-month rolling
- territorial-control map changes (government vs insurgent)
- state-security-force defection rate
- cross-border weapons + fighter flow
- refugee + internally-displaced-person count
- foreign-military-intervention events
Model notes (framework)
The internal taxonomy for pressure moments and their triggering mechanics is documented at the method.