A zoonotic spillover amplifies to pandemic risk
Window: Multi-year surveillance window; discrete amplification event; multi-year downstream regime
LevelElevated
What this is
A pathogen crosses from an animal reservoir into humans and achieves sustained human-to-human transmission (≥3 generations) sufficient to trigger a WHO PHEIC declaration. F-CT-8 polycrystalline-τ at the animal-human grain boundary — accumulated spillover pressure (host-range expansion, outbreak frequency) discharges as a pandemic-tier event. F-CT-9 ADAPTATION-REQUIRED fires on surveillance, vaccine-manufacturing, and health-governance substrates.
What to watch
- H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b dairy-cattle outbreak scope + bovine-to-human transmission eventssteady
- WHO IHR notifications of novel-pathogen clusterssteady
- Nextstrain phylogenetic reconstruction of mammalian-adaptation mutationssteady
Cycles that can trigger it
Predictions that turn on it
No predictions mapped yet
Live predictions attach to this moment as the model identifies dependencies.
Historical precedents
- H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b dairy-cattle outbreak scope + bovine-to-human transmission events
- WHO IHR notifications of novel-pathogen clusters
- Nextstrain phylogenetic reconstruction of mammalian-adaptation mutations
- PHEIC declaration frequency (base rate ~0.5/year 2009-2024)
- GISAID novel-pathogen sequence deposition rates
- wastewater pathogen surveillance alerts in formal programs
Model notes (framework)
The internal taxonomy for pressure moments and their triggering mechanics is documented at the method.