event

Regime-change event

18 predictions moved

Definition

Event-class that marks a non-smooth transition in political regime: election with institutional-legitimacy question, coup attempt, constitutional crisis, mass-protest cycle leading to leadership turnover, military intervention in civil governance. Fires at transition-state boundaries; direction is cycle-contextual.

Predictions it moves

pandemic governance

By 2028, the WHO pathogen-sharing system will face its first major real-world test?

System Tested 65 · Still Untested 35
Reality: A 65%, B 35%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2028
pandemic governance

By mid-2026, the WHO Pandemic Agreement will be formally adopted?

Agreement Adopted 70 · Agreement Stalls 30
Reality: A 70%, B 30%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0May 2026
pandemic governance

By 2026, 8 or more countries will have formally rejected parts of the 2024 international health rules?

Rules Rejected 80 · Rules Hold 20
Reality: A 80%, B 20%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2026
geopolitics

Taiwan Strait status quo through end of 2027?

Status Quo 68 · Status Breaks 32
Reality: A 68%, B 32%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2027
US politics

Second-term tariff regime settles into a stable rate band by Q3 2026?

Rates Stable 50 · Still Volatile 50
Reality: A 50%, B 50%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Sep 2026
geopolitics

Taiwan: Peace or Conflict?

Peace 72 · Conflict 28 · crowd A 87
Reality: A 72%, B 28%. Crowd puts A at 87%. Gap plus 15.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap +15 · crowd 87Dec 2028
geopolitics

US and China: Managed Rivalry or Rupture?

Managed Rivalry 68 · Rupture 32 · crowd A 72
Reality: A 68%, B 32%. Crowd puts A at 72%. Gap plus 4.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap +4 · crowd 72Dec 2028
climate_energy

US energy transition: acceleration or stall?

Acceleration 55 · Stall 45
Reality: A 55%, B 45%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2028
US politics

US democratic institutions through 2028: hold or crack?

Hold 62 · Crack 38 · crowd A 70
Reality: A 62%, B 38%. Crowd puts A at 70%. Gap plus 8.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap +8 · crowd 70Dec 2028
geopolitics

Russia-Ukraine war through 2028: ends or continues?

Ends 55 · Continues 45 · crowd A 52
Reality: A 55%, B 45%. Crowd puts A at 52%. Gap minus 3.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap −3 · crowd 52Dec 2028
geopolitics

Russia and Ukraine reach a formal ceasefire or armistice by end of 2027?

Ceasefire Signed 42 · War Continues 58
Reality: A 42%, B 58%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2027
US politics

US ICE formal removals exceed 500,000 in fiscal year 2027?

Removals Surge 35 · Fewer Removals 65 · crowd A 42
Reality: A 35%, B 65%. Crowd puts A at 42%. Gap plus 7.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap +7 · crowd 42Mar 2028
geopolitics

US adds 50 or more Chinese companies to its chip-related export control list during 2027?

Fifty Plus Added 60 · Fewer Added 40 · crowd A 65
Reality: A 60%, B 40%. Crowd puts A at 65%. Gap plus 5.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap +5 · crowd 65Mar 2028
geopolitics

Russia-Ukraine territorial change during 2027 stays small — less than two percentage points of Ukraine's area shifts in either direction?

Lines Steady 65 · Lines Move 35 · crowd A 57
Reality: A 65%, B 35%. Crowd puts A at 57%. Gap minus 8.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap −8 · crowd 57Feb 2028
geopolitics

US notifies Congress of at least $5 billion in cumulative arms sales to Taiwan during calendar years 2026 and 2027?

Arms Flow 60 · Arms Slow 40 · crowd A 55
Reality: A 60%, B 40%. Crowd puts A at 55%. Gap minus 5.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap −5 · crowd 55Jan 2028
geopolitics

US average effective tariff rate on imports from China stays above 30 percent through the end of 2027?

Tariff Stays High 72 · Tariff Falls 28 · crowd A 65
Reality: A 72%, B 28%. Crowd puts A at 65%. Gap minus 7.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap −7 · crowd 65Mar 2028
us_politics

A US federal court holds at least one top Trump administration official in formal contempt by end of 2027?

Court Rules Contempt 52 · No Contempt 48 · crowd A 44
Reality: A 52%, B 48%. Crowd puts A at 44%. Gap minus 8.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap −8 · crowd 44Jan 2028
geopolitics

The Western sanctions regime on Russia stays substantially intact through end of 2028 — fewer than roughly a quarter of the restrictions in force at the start of 2026 come off?

Sanctions Hold 63 · Sanctions Fray 37 · crowd A 73
Reality: A 63%, B 37%. Crowd puts A at 73%. Gap plus 10.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap +10 · crowd 73Dec 2028

Appears in these cycles

How to read this

A mover is a specific actor, signal, policy, or event whose behavior shifts which fork a prediction takes. The direction tag on each prediction row shows whether this mover tilts the odds toward Timeline A, Timeline B, either side, or only under specific conditions. See the method for how leverage is scored.