The great technology wave (about 50 years)
Perez's Techno-Economic Paradigm (TEP) frames approx 50-year great surges of development around a new general-purpose technology. Each surge has four phases: (1) IRRUPTION — new technology enters, old economy still dominant; (2) FRENZY — financial capital decouples from productive capital, bubble forms; (3) TURNING POINT — bubble crash forces institutional reset; (4) SYNERGY — new paradigm diffuses productively through re-regulated economy, 'golden age'. Then MATURITY and setup for next surge. Five observed surges since 1770s: Industrial Revolution; Steam & Railways; Steel & Heavy Engineering; Mass Production/Oil/Auto; ICT. A possible 6th surge (AI + biotech + energy transition) is debated.
Predictions in this cycle
By end of 2029, a major AI lab will publicly admit its model got worse because training data was contaminated by AI output?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By end of 2028, a sudden crash will wipe out at least one AI content-farm or AI-arbitrage sector?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By end of 2027, at least 2 major AI companies will differentiate themselves on 'content provenance' as a selling point?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By end of 2028, 40% or more of Google / Bing searches will end at an AI answer with no click to the source?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2029, big banks will have their first major AI-driven losses — and new rules will follow?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
The 2025 fintech IPO class (Klarna, Chime, Circle) will underperform the market through 2027?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Taiwan Strait status quo through end of 2027?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
US energy transition: acceleration or stall?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
AI capability: breakthrough or plateau?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
The American working class: wage gains or wage decline?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
Palisades nuclear plant starts generating electricity again by end of 2027?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
NBER declares a US recession with a start date in 2026 or 2027 by end of 2028?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
US grid-connected battery storage capacity passes 80 gigawatts by end of 2027?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
US adds 50 or more Chinese companies to its chip-related export control list during 2027?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
US real median weekly earnings grow by more than 1% from Q4 2024 to Q4 2027?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
Pressure moments
All →A large cyber attack with cross-sector contagion
- cross-sector-ransomware event count per quartersteady
- zero-day-with-wide-deployment eventssteady
- supply-chain compromise events (code-signing, dependency, hardware)steady
A deepfake triggers a political or kinetic event
- named-synthetic-media incident count attributed to political crisessteady
- C2PA + content-provenance adoption ratesteady
- election-period synthetic-media incident countsteady
A chip embargo escalates materially
- named-regulatory-rule publication events (BIS, EU, EAR, Commerce Export)steady
- equipment-sanction scope expansion eventssteady
- counter-sanction + material-ban announcement eventssteady
Movers
All →Artist generation (sensitive adapters)
Leverage not yet scoredtoward A
toward B
Hero generation (civic team-builders)
Leverage not yet scoredtoward A
toward B
Nomad generation (pragmatic survivors)
Leverage not yet scoredtoward A
toward B
Model notes (framework)
The reconciliation note surfaces when this cycle’s top fork disagrees with the lean of its live child predictions — a sign the cycle’s read is tightening or breaking down.
See the method for how a cycle’s forks are set.