The long-term debt supercycle (about 50-75 years)
Ray Dalio long-term debt cycle (~50-75yr): sustained credit growth lifts debt-to-income ratios past the point short-cycle rate adjustments can resolve. Cycle climax = deleveraging phase, resolved via some mix of austerity, debt-restructuring, money-printing, and wealth-redistribution. Terminates with a new monetary order. Classical phases: new order → prosperity → excess → debt-peak → deleveraging (deflationary or inflationary or balanced) → new order.
Predictions in this cycle
By 2030, the top-4 US banks will own even more of US deposits?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2029, big banks will have their first major AI-driven losses — and new rules will follow?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2028, non-bank finance will dominate the global financial system (53%+ share)?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
The Fed will hold mostly steady from 2026 — not return to zero rates absent a crisis?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
The ECB digital euro will launch by 2029 — but adoption will stay below 5%?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
China's digital yuan will keep growing — but won't challenge SWIFT internationally?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
China's property crisis will deepen through 2027 — without triggering a systemic bank crisis?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
US stablecoin market will grow 2-4x by 2028 under new regulation?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Bitcoin and ETH ETFs will hold $250 billion+ by end of 2027?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2028, 3-5 more emerging-market countries will enter sovereign debt restructuring?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
US private-credit stress visible in bank regulatory data by end of 2026?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Private credit cycle: unwind or contained?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
Pressure moments
All →A correlated cross-border bank run
- deposit-flight event count at scalesteady
- interbank funding spreads (TED spread + LIBOR equivalents, FRA-OIS)steady
- central-bank emergency-liquidity-facility activation eventssteady
A sovereign-default cascade across multiple countries
- named sovereign-default event count 12-24 months rollingsteady
- IMF emergency-program activation countsteady
- EM-sovereign CDS spread + GEM composite trajectorysteady
A climactic generational-crisis resolution event
- constitutional-crisis event count + severitysteady
- great-power-war probability per prediction-market pricingsteady
- major financial-system reset events (currency-regime change, international-institution reset)steady
Movers
All →Artist generation (sensitive adapters)
Leverage not yet scoredtoward A
toward B
Hero generation (civic team-builders)
Leverage not yet scoredtoward A
toward B
Nomad generation (pragmatic survivors)
Leverage not yet scoredtoward A
toward B
Model notes (framework)
The reconciliation note surfaces when this cycle’s top fork disagrees with the lean of its live child predictions — a sign the cycle’s read is tightening or breaking down.
See the method for how a cycle’s forks are set.