Collective pull shift
69 predictions moved
Definition
Market-class: discontinuous move in collective attention + capital toward an outcome, measurable in prediction markets (Polymarket / Kalshi / Manifold / Metaculus / PredictIt) and sector-rotation flows. Per AMENDMENT 47 §MCA-2, this IS the B_leak = consciousness measurement instrument where it covers an outcome. Direction contextual depending on which outcome the pull targets.
Predictions it moves
By end of 2028, most new smartphone photos will ship with built-in cryptographic proof of origin?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By end of 2029, a major AI lab will publicly admit its model got worse because training data was contaminated by AI output?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By end of 2028, a sudden crash will wipe out at least one AI content-farm or AI-arbitrage sector?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By end of 2030, global spend on AI watermarking and content-authenticity services will exceed $10 billion a year?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By end of 2029, 'human-written / AI-written / human+AI collaboration' will be a required metadata field in major standards?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By end of 2027, at least 2 major AI companies will differentiate themselves on 'content provenance' as a selling point?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By end of 2028, Wikipedia-style reference sites will carry formal 'human-written only' certification?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By end of 2027, big news publishers will collectively earn over $2 billion a year licensing their content to AI companies?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By end of 2029, at least 10 new countries will have AI safety agencies with real audit power over frontier labs?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By end of 2028, 40% or more of Google / Bing searches will end at an AI answer with no click to the source?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By end of 2027, 'pre-AI' text archives will be officially certified and marketed as premium training data?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By end of 2028, top science journals will require cryptographic 'who wrote what, and whether AI helped' metadata on every submission?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By end of 2027, US courts will have settled whether AI companies owe news publishers compulsory royalties?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By end of 2028, subscription newsletters and expert-attested journalism will have doubled their 2024 reader base?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By end of 2030, over a thousand new species will be marked 'Critically Endangered' on the IUCN Red List?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2030, at least one more North American bumblebee species will get formal Endangered listing?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2028, DNA-from-air environmental monitoring will be official methodology in at least 5 countries?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2030, at least 3 'ecological release' events will be formally documented with measurable dynamics?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2028-2029, the global wildlife trade treaty (CITES) will add 50+ more species to its restriction lists?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Western Monarch butterflies will stay below 30,000 overwintering through 2030?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2030, Great Barrier Reef coral cover will drop below 15% average?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2030, at least 3 chytrid-affected amphibian species will go extinct in the wild?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2030, IUCN will formally recognize 'biobank-preserved' or 'de-extinction candidate' as a species-status category?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2030, '30x30' targets will claim success — but most 'new protection' will be weak paper parks?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2028, the global index of wild-vertebrate populations will show deeper decline than 2024's '73% lost' baseline?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2030, Arctic ice-dependent seal populations will continue falling?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2030, at least one G20 country or major funder will publicly list species they're giving up on?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2032, average global warming will cross 1.5°C on a 10-year basis?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Global CO2 emissions will peak this decade — but decline will be far too slow for 1.5°C?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
The Arctic will see its first ice-free September between 2028 and 2038?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
The Atlantic ocean current (AMOC) will weaken but not collapse before 2050?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2030, H5N1 bird flu will have caused at least one sustained human-to-human transmission cluster?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Between 2026 and 2028, overcapacity will trigger 3 or more major mRNA vaccine plant closures?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2030, the global pathogen sequence database will exceed 30 million sequences?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2028, antimicrobial resistance will be recognized as a standing global emergency with its own governing body?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2032, a new coronavirus will be detected in humans — but won't spark a pandemic?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Long-COVID research funding will crash 50%+ by 2029?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2028, the 100-day pandemic vaccine goal will be hit for first-dose, but not for mass availability?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Between 2025 and 2030, at least 2 new global health emergencies will be declared?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2028, wastewater pathogen monitoring will be standard health infrastructure in 60+ countries?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By end of 2027, the Pandemic Fund will have billions in pledges but still struggle to disburse?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2035, Africa will produce 60% of its own vaccines (up from 1% in 2021)?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2030, at least one declared pandemic emergency will be for a pathogen nobody expected?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2030, the top-4 US banks will own even more of US deposits?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2029, big banks will have their first major AI-driven losses — and new rules will follow?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
The 2025 fintech IPO class (Klarna, Chime, Circle) will underperform the market through 2027?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Between 2026 and 2028, 3-8 mid-size US banks will fail or be forced to merge?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2028, non-bank finance will dominate the global financial system (53%+ share)?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
The ECB digital euro will launch by 2029 — but adoption will stay below 5%?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
US office real estate stress will peak by 2027 — then slowly recover?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Private credit will have its first major stress test — with 5+ large defaults by 2028?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
China's property crisis will deepen through 2027 — without triggering a systemic bank crisis?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
US stablecoin market will grow 2-4x by 2028 under new regulation?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Bitcoin and ETH ETFs will hold $250 billion+ by end of 2027?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2028, 3-5 more emerging-market countries will enter sovereign debt restructuring?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
US private-credit stress visible in bank regulatory data by end of 2026?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
US energy transition: acceleration or stall?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
AI capability: breakthrough or plateau?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
Private credit cycle: unwind or contained?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
Climate costs through 2028: absorbed or breaking?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
A publicly released AI model passes 50% on FrontierMath by end of 2027?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Palisades nuclear plant starts generating electricity again by end of 2027?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
NBER declares a US recession with a start date in 2026 or 2027 by end of 2028?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
US grid-connected battery storage capacity passes 80 gigawatts by end of 2027?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
An openly-released AI model holds a top-5 spot on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at some point during 2027?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Florida Citizens Property Insurance policy count stays below 2 million through end of 2027?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
A publicly-released AI model achieves 85% or higher on SWE-bench Verified at some point during 2027?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
California FAIR Plan policy count stays below 750,000 through end of 2027?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
The US high-yield corporate bond default rate stays below 5 percent at every monthly reading in 2027?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
Appears in these cycles
- The Pacific weather see-saw (2 to 7 years) →
- The great technology wave (about 50 years) →
- The chip boom-bust (2 to 4 years) →
- The empire rise-and-fall cycle (about 250 years) →
- Russia-Ukraine war in Europe →
- The long-term debt supercycle (about 50-75 years) →
- The short-term business and credit cycle (about 5-10 years) →
- US and China — the rising-vs-ruling-power friction →
How to read this
A mover is a specific actor, signal, policy, or event whose behavior shifts which fork a prediction takes. The direction tag on each prediction row shows whether this mover tilts the odds toward Timeline A, Timeline B, either side, or only under specific conditions. See the method for how leverage is scored.