The Pacific weather see-saw (2 to 7 years)

ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) is a 2-7 year coupled ocean-atmosphere oscillation in the tropical Pacific. Walker circulation + thermocline tilt swing between warm-east (El Nino) and warm-west (La Nina) states; ONI (Oceanic Nino Index) 3-month running SST anomaly in Nino 3.4 region crossing +/-0.5 C defines phases. Teleconnections drive hurricane seasons, droughts, grain-crop yields, and shifts in global atmospheric circulation.

Rest
The Pacific weather see-saw (2 to 7 years) — long cycleThe Pacific weather see-saw (2 to 7 years): La Nina persistence leads at 55% reality support by 2028.BREAKINGPRESSUREREST55%35%10%Super El NinoTriple-dip La NinaRecord warm PacificLa Nina transitionNow · 20262028

Predictions in this cycle

climate change

By 2032, average global warming will cross 1.5°C on a 10-year basis?

Crossed 1.5C 90 · Below Threshold 10
Reality: A 90%, B 10%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2034
climate change

Global CO2 emissions will peak this decade — but decline will be far too slow for 1.5°C?

Peak Too Slow 85 · Faster Decline 15
Reality: A 85%, B 15%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2032
Arctic sea ice

The Arctic will see its first ice-free September between 2028 and 2038?

Ice-Free Soon 80 · Later Or Never 20
Reality: A 80%, B 20%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Sep 2038
ocean circulation

The Atlantic ocean current (AMOC) will weaken but not collapse before 2050?

Weakens Steadily 70 · Collapse Or Steady 30
Reality: A 70%, B 30%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2045
climate_energy

US energy transition: acceleration or stall?

Acceleration 55 · Stall 45
Reality: A 55%, B 45%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2028
climate_energy

Climate costs through 2028: absorbed or breaking?

Absorbed 52 · Breaking 48 · crowd A 40
Reality: A 52%, B 48%. Crowd puts A at 40%. Gap minus 12.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap −12 · crowd 40Dec 2028
climate_energy

US grid-connected battery storage capacity passes 80 gigawatts by end of 2027?

Storage Scales 58 · Falls Short 42
Reality: A 58%, B 42%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Feb 2028
climate_energy

Florida Citizens Property Insurance policy count stays below 2 million through end of 2027?

Pool Shrinks 72 · Pool Grows 28 · crowd A 60
Reality: A 72%, B 28%. Crowd puts A at 60%. Gap minus 12.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap −12 · crowd 60Dec 2027
climate_energy

California FAIR Plan policy count stays below 750,000 through end of 2027?

Pool Holds 55 · Pool Swells 45 · crowd A 45
Reality: A 55%, B 45%. Crowd puts A at 45%. Gap minus 10.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap −10 · crowd 45Dec 2027

Pressure moments

All →

No pressure moments mapped to this cycle yet

Thresholds attach to a cycle when the model identifies them as triggers.

Movers

All →
actorLeverage

Artist generation (sensitive adapters)

Leverage not yet scored
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Hero generation (civic team-builders)

Leverage not yet scored
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Nomad generation (pragmatic survivors)

Leverage not yet scored
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Model notes (framework)

The reconciliation note surfaces when this cycle’s top fork disagrees with the lean of its live child predictions — a sign the cycle’s read is tightening or breaking down.

See the method for how a cycle’s forks are set.