Primary fork · FORK 2Within 15–40 years
Utopia or dystopia
If we do make it through, what kind of world is on the other side — abundance for everyone, or concentration of power into very few hands?
Timeline A35%
Utopia
Abundance economics, material and cognitive. Radical individual freedom and flourishing become the baseline. Work is optional, meaning is self-chosen.
Timeline B45%
Dystopia
Power concentrates with whoever controls compute and data. Mass surveillance becomes the substrate. Suffering gets cheap. Meaning collapses faster than it can be rebuilt.
The timeline nobody's watching
Mixed-regime equilibrium
Pockets of utopia and pockets of dystopia at the same time. Where you live, what passport you hold, and which network you plug into decide which world you get.
35%45%
UtopiaMixed-regime equilibriumDystopia
Two poles are doing most of the pulling. One pole we’re watching for upset.
Timeline A pull strength 35%, Timeline B pull strength 45%, third pole explicitly watched. Remaining 14% is unaccounted-for structural possibility.