LivetechWestern cycleAnchors pending

Energy infrastructure substrate — tempo of GW-scale AI power build-out?

As of 2 Oct · 23:18 UTCResolves 31 Dec 20280 movers0 pressure moments
Timeline A · Timeline AReality
60%
Crowd 55%Gap 0

By end of 2028, data centers powering AI models are pulling so much electricity that utilities and grid operators have built new power plants or restarted old ones specifically to feed them. Microsoft signs deals for nuclear output, Georgia Power plants new gas capacity, and the grid stays stable because the infrastructure keeps pace with demand. AI compute keeps growing without hitting a power wall.

Timeline B · Timeline BReality
40%
Crowd 45%Gap 0

By end of 2028, AI data centers want more power than the grid can reliably deliver, forcing companies to pause expansion, move servers to other countries, or burn through diesel generators. Utilities file permits for new plants but can't build fast enough — permitting takes years and costs soar. The power shortage becomes the bottleneck that slows AI rollout in the US.

crowd 55
The quiet paththe one nobody’s watching

Major grid attack or supply-chain shock destroys both timelines' build pace equally, making the race itself beside the point.

6%
The read

Where reality is heading

A, 80% bandCrowd today
Projected reality support to 31 Dec 2028A rises from 41% to about 52% with an 80% band of 33 to 71. B falls from 53% to about 44%. Quiet path near 4 to 6%. Crowd today: A 55%.100%7550250Crowd today · A 55%A ~52%B ~44%P ~4%NowJan 2027Jan 202831 Dec 2028
Reality crosses toward A in early 2028. Today’s crowd number sits at the top of A’s band, possible but optimistic. View as table

The movers, ranked by leverage

What would change our mind

Signals toward A
    Signals toward B

      Evidence