LivetechWestern cycleAnchors pending

Second-derivative tempo — rate-of-change OF tech-cycle acceleration itself?

As of 2 Oct · 23:18 UTCResolves 31 Dec 20280 movers0 pressure moments
Timeline A · Timeline AReality
57%
Crowd 55%Gap 0

By end of 2028, the pace at which technology cycles are accelerating continues to speed up itself. A chip generation arrives faster than the previous gap narrowed; AI training cycles compress month-over-month in a compounding way; consumer hardware refresh windows keep shrinking, and each shrink happens quicker than the last shrink did. The second derivative is positive: not just faster cycles, but faster-getting-faster.

Timeline B · Timeline BReality
43%
Crowd 45%Gap 0

By end of 2028, technology cycles remain fast, but the rate of speedup flattens or reverses. A chip generation still arrives on a tight schedule, but the schedule stabilizes rather than tightens further; AI training efficiency gains slow their acceleration; hardware refresh windows stay short but stop collapsing inward. The speedup itself has peaked: cycles are still rapid, but the acceleration has leveled off.

crowd 55
The quiet paththe one nobody’s watching

A Taiwan or ASML shock resets semiconductor timelines entirely, bypassing the acceleration question.

6%
The read

Where reality is heading

A, 80% bandCrowd today
Projected reality support to 31 Dec 2028A rises from 41% to about 52% with an 80% band of 33 to 71. B falls from 53% to about 44%. Quiet path near 4 to 6%. Crowd today: A 55%.100%7550250Crowd today · A 55%A ~52%B ~44%P ~4%NowJan 2027Jan 202831 Dec 2028
Reality crosses toward A in early 2028. Today’s crowd number sits at the top of A’s band, possible but optimistic. View as table

The movers, ranked by leverage

What would change our mind

Signals toward A
    Signals toward B

      Evidence