LivetechWestern cycleAnchors pending

Narrative-tempo of AI discourse — cycle duration?

As of 2 Oct · 23:18 UTCResolves 31 Dec 20280 movers0 pressure moments
Timeline A · Timeline AReality
50%
Crowd 55%Gap 0

By end of 2028, AI-talk cycles through hype and letdown faster than before—every 12-18 months instead of 2-3 years. Google searches spike, media runs 500+ stories, public trust rises then crashes, then the cycle restarts. Each cycle moves quicker because companies push updates faster and news outlets compete harder for clicks.

Timeline B · Timeline BReality
50%
Crowd 45%Gap 0

By end of 2028, AI-talk moves on a longer beat—staying hot for 2-3 years or more before cooling. Search trends stay elevated, media coverage stays steady rather than spiking and crashing, and public interest doesn't whipsaw between excitement and skepticism as sharply. The conversation matures into background noise instead of boom-bust swings.

crowd 55
The quiet paththe one nobody’s watching

AI safety crisis or major regulatory ban reframes the whole conversation away from hype-cycle rhythm.

6%
The read

Where reality is heading

A, 80% bandCrowd today
Projected reality support to 31 Dec 2028A rises from 41% to about 52% with an 80% band of 33 to 71. B falls from 53% to about 44%. Quiet path near 4 to 6%. Crowd today: A 55%.100%7550250Crowd today · A 55%A ~52%B ~44%P ~4%NowJan 2027Jan 202831 Dec 2028
Reality crosses toward A in early 2028. Today’s crowd number sits at the top of A’s band, possible but optimistic. View as table

The movers, ranked by leverage

What would change our mind

Signals toward A
    Signals toward B

      Evidence