LivetechWestern cycleAnchors pending

Agentic-substrate deployment tempo first-wave adoption?

As of 2 Oct · 23:18 UTCResolves 31 Dec 20280 movers0 pressure moments
Timeline A · Timeline AReality
43%
Crowd 55%Gap 0

By end of 2028, major US tech companies and professional service firms have built agent software into their daily work—coding tools, customer service bots, contract review systems. GitHub shows enterprise adoption of agentic features above 60%, Microsoft and Salesforce earnings calls describe these tools as core to revenue growth, and job postings shift toward roles that manage or pair with agents rather than replace them outright. The EU's AI rules (fully in force by August 2026) slow European rollout but do not stop US momentum.

Timeline B · Adoption Stays SlowReality
57%
Crowd 45%Gap 0

Adoption stays slow and patchy through 2028. Companies pilot agents, report mixed results, and hesitate to deploy at scale. GitHub enterprise numbers stay below 40%, earnings calls downplay agentic revenue, and hiring data shows companies still building human teams rather than agent-augmented ones. Regulatory friction, liability concerns, and real performance gaps in complex tasks keep agents at the novelty or support-only tier, not the core-work tier that would mark genuine first-wave adoption.

crowd 55
The quiet paththe one nobody’s watching

Major agent system failure in finance or healthcare triggers regulatory lockdown and insurance collapse before 2028.

6%
The read

Where reality is heading

A, 80% bandCrowd today
Projected reality support to 31 Dec 2028A rises from 41% to about 52% with an 80% band of 33 to 71. B falls from 53% to about 44%. Quiet path near 4 to 6%. Crowd today: A 55%.100%7550250Crowd today · A 55%A ~52%B ~44%P ~4%NowJan 2027Jan 202831 Dec 2028
Reality crosses toward A in early 2028. Today’s crowd number sits at the top of A’s band, possible but optimistic. View as table

The movers, ranked by leverage

What would change our mind

Signals toward A
    Signals toward B

      Evidence