Leading economic indicator
24 predictions moved
Definition
Signal-class: measurable datum that precedes regime-level economic transitions by a known lead-time distribution. Yield-curve inversion, credit-spread blowout, HY/IG spread, trade-finance volume, LEI composite, PMI inflection, housing-starts collapse. Direction cycle-contextual depending on which transition fires.
Predictions it moves
Biodiversity finance will fall far short of the $20B / $30B / year targets?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By end of 2027, the Pandemic Fund will have billions in pledges but still struggle to disburse?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
The US will finalize Basel III rules by 2028 — in a bank-friendly 'light-touch' form?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2030, the top-4 US banks will own even more of US deposits?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2029, big banks will have their first major AI-driven losses — and new rules will follow?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
The 2025 fintech IPO class (Klarna, Chime, Circle) will underperform the market through 2027?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Between 2026 and 2028, 3-8 mid-size US banks will fail or be forced to merge?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2028, non-bank finance will dominate the global financial system (53%+ share)?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
The Fed will hold mostly steady from 2026 — not return to zero rates absent a crisis?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
The ECB digital euro will launch by 2029 — but adoption will stay below 5%?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
China's digital yuan will keep growing — but won't challenge SWIFT internationally?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
US office real estate stress will peak by 2027 — then slowly recover?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Private credit will have its first major stress test — with 5+ large defaults by 2028?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
US stablecoin market will grow 2-4x by 2028 under new regulation?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Bitcoin and ETH ETFs will hold $250 billion+ by end of 2027?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2028, 3-5 more emerging-market countries will enter sovereign debt restructuring?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
US private-credit stress visible in bank regulatory data by end of 2026?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
The American working class: wage gains or wage decline?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
Private credit cycle: unwind or contained?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
US unemployment rate stays between 3.8% and 4.8% through end of 2026?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
NBER declares a US recession with a start date in 2026 or 2027 by end of 2028?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
US real median weekly earnings grow by more than 1% from Q4 2024 to Q4 2027?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
The US high-yield corporate bond default rate stays below 5 percent at every monthly reading in 2027?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
US prime-age (25-54) labor force participation rate stays above 83 percent at every monthly reading in 2027?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
Appears in these cycles
- The Pacific weather see-saw (2 to 7 years) →
- The Western democratic-industrial world →
- China's 2500-year dynastic rhythm →
- The great technology wave (about 50 years) →
- The chip boom-bust (2 to 4 years) →
- The long-term debt supercycle (about 50-75 years) →
- The short-term business and credit cycle (about 5-10 years) →
How to read this
A mover is a specific actor, signal, policy, or event whose behavior shifts which fork a prediction takes. The direction tag on each prediction row shows whether this mover tilts the odds toward Timeline A, Timeline B, either side, or only under specific conditions. See the method for how leverage is scored.