signal

Institutional trust decay

55 predictions moved

Definition

Signal-class: measurable datum tracking collective trust in institutions — Pew/Gallup polling on Congress/Supreme-Court/media/science/business, approval ratings, cross-party cooperation rate, voter-turnout participation vs grievance, protest-event counts. Direction typically Timeline-B on democratic-haywire cycle.

Predictions it moves

culture and philosophy

A French intellectual will author an influential book titled roughly 'The Open Way' that becomes a philosophical movement?

Book Appears 15 · Never Written 85
Reality: A 15%, B 85%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2075
culture and politics

A charismatic political-religious figure will emerge from Latin America, taking spiritual orders around age 30?

Figure Emerges 8 · No Figure 92
Reality: A 8%, B 92%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2100
AI content provenance

By end of 2028, most new smartphone photos will ship with built-in cryptographic proof of origin?

Proof Shipped 65 · No Proof 35
Reality: A 65%, B 35%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2028
AI model quality

By end of 2029, a major AI lab will publicly admit its model got worse because training data was contaminated by AI output?

Admitted Publicly 50 · Never Admitted 50
Reality: A 50%, B 50%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2029
AI content economy

By end of 2028, a sudden crash will wipe out at least one AI content-farm or AI-arbitrage sector?

Sector Crashes 40 · No Crash 60
Reality: A 40%, B 60%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2028
AI authenticity industry

By end of 2030, global spend on AI watermarking and content-authenticity services will exceed $10 billion a year?

Market Explodes 60 · Market Stalls 40
Reality: A 60%, B 40%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2030
AI content metadata standards

By end of 2029, 'human-written / AI-written / human+AI collaboration' will be a required metadata field in major standards?

Required Field 55 · Still Optional 45
Reality: A 55%, B 45%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2029
AI competitive positioning

By end of 2027, at least 2 major AI companies will differentiate themselves on 'content provenance' as a selling point?

Provenance Sells 55 · No Pivot 45
Reality: A 55%, B 45%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2027
AI content provenance

By end of 2028, Wikipedia-style reference sites will carry formal 'human-written only' certification?

Humans Certified 70 · No Certification 30
Reality: A 70%, B 30%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2028
AI publisher economics

By end of 2027, big news publishers will collectively earn over $2 billion a year licensing their content to AI companies?

Licensing Boom 65 · Modest Deals 35
Reality: A 65%, B 35%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2027
Search and web traffic

By end of 2028, 40% or more of Google / Bing searches will end at an AI answer with no click to the source?

Answers Win 80 · Clicks Hold 20
Reality: A 80%, B 20%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2028
AI training data provenance

By end of 2027, 'pre-AI' text archives will be officially certified and marketed as premium training data?

Clean Priced 55 · No Premium 45
Reality: A 55%, B 45%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2027
Scientific publishing integrity

By end of 2028, top science journals will require cryptographic 'who wrote what, and whether AI helped' metadata on every submission?

Metadata Required 55 · Policy Soft 45
Reality: A 55%, B 45%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2028
Human-verified content economy

By end of 2028, subscription newsletters and expert-attested journalism will have doubled their 2024 reader base?

Readership Doubles 60 · Flat Growth 40
Reality: A 60%, B 40%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2028
biodiversity collapse

By end of 2030, over a thousand new species will be marked 'Critically Endangered' on the IUCN Red List?

Listings Surge 80 · Modest Growth 20
Reality: A 80%, B 20%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2030
pollinator collapse

By 2030, at least one more North American bumblebee species will get formal Endangered listing?

Bee Listed 75 · Not Listed 25
Reality: A 75%, B 25%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2030
biodiversity monitoring

By 2028, DNA-from-air environmental monitoring will be official methodology in at least 5 countries?

Method Adopted 70 · Not Adopted 30
Reality: A 70%, B 30%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2028
ecosystem reorganization

By 2030, at least 3 'ecological release' events will be formally documented with measurable dynamics?

Events Documented 65 · None Documented 35
Reality: A 65%, B 35%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2030
wildlife trade

By 2028-2029, the global wildlife trade treaty (CITES) will add 50+ more species to its restriction lists?

Additions Pass 85 · Fewer Added 15
Reality: A 85%, B 15%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Jun 2029
pollinator collapse

Western Monarch butterflies will stay below 30,000 overwintering through 2030?

Monarchs Low 85 · Monarchs Rebound 15
Reality: A 85%, B 15%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Mar 2030
coral reef collapse

By 2030, Great Barrier Reef coral cover will drop below 15% average?

Reef Collapses 75 · Reef Holds 25
Reality: A 75%, B 25%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2030
amphibian extinction

By 2030, at least 3 chytrid-affected amphibian species will go extinct in the wild?

Species Lost 70 · Species Hold 30
Reality: A 70%, B 30%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2030
de-extinction policy

By 2030, IUCN will formally recognize 'biobank-preserved' or 'de-extinction candidate' as a species-status category?

Category Added 55 · Not Recognized 45
Reality: A 55%, B 45%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2030
protected-area policy

By 2030, '30x30' targets will claim success — but most 'new protection' will be weak paper parks?

Paper Victory 85 · Real Protection 15
Reality: A 85%, B 15%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2030
biodiversity collapse

By 2028, the global index of wild-vertebrate populations will show deeper decline than 2024's '73% lost' baseline?

Decline Deepens 85 · Decline Slows 15
Reality: A 85%, B 15%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2028
Arctic ecosystem shifts

By 2030, Arctic ice-dependent seal populations will continue falling?

Seals Falling 75 · Seals Hold 25
Reality: A 75%, B 25%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2030
conservation ethics

By 2030, at least one G20 country or major funder will publicly list species they're giving up on?

Triage Begins 45 · No Triage 55
Reality: A 45%, B 55%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2030
climate change

By 2032, average global warming will cross 1.5°C on a 10-year basis?

Crossed 1.5C 90 · Below Threshold 10
Reality: A 90%, B 10%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2034
climate change

Global CO2 emissions will peak this decade — but decline will be far too slow for 1.5°C?

Peak Too Slow 85 · Faster Decline 15
Reality: A 85%, B 15%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2032
Arctic sea ice

The Arctic will see its first ice-free September between 2028 and 2038?

Ice-Free Soon 80 · Later Or Never 20
Reality: A 80%, B 20%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Sep 2038
ocean circulation

The Atlantic ocean current (AMOC) will weaken but not collapse before 2050?

Weakens Steadily 70 · Collapse Or Steady 30
Reality: A 70%, B 30%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2045
pandemic risk

By 2030, H5N1 bird flu will have caused at least one sustained human-to-human transmission cluster?

Cluster Occurs 40 · No Cluster 60
Reality: A 40%, B 60%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2030
pandemic surveillance

By 2030, the global pathogen sequence database will exceed 30 million sequences?

Database Grows 90 · Falls Short 10
Reality: A 90%, B 10%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2030
antimicrobial resistance

By 2028, antimicrobial resistance will be recognized as a standing global emergency with its own governing body?

Body Established 40 · Status Quo 60
Reality: A 40%, B 60%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2028
pandemic risk

By 2032, a new coronavirus will be detected in humans — but won't spark a pandemic?

Found Contained 65 · None Or Pandemic 35
Reality: A 65%, B 35%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2032
pandemic preparedness

By 2028, the 100-day pandemic vaccine goal will be hit for first-dose, but not for mass availability?

First-Dose Hit 60 · Goal Missed 40
Reality: A 60%, B 40%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2028
pandemic risk

Between 2025 and 2030, at least 2 new global health emergencies will be declared?

Emergencies Declared 90 · Fewer Declared 10
Reality: A 90%, B 10%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2030
pandemic surveillance

By 2028, wastewater pathogen monitoring will be standard health infrastructure in 60+ countries?

Standard Everywhere 75 · Patchy Adoption 25
Reality: A 75%, B 25%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2028
pandemic preparedness

By 2035, Africa will produce 60% of its own vaccines (up from 1% in 2021)?

Africa Scales 35 · Africa Short 65
Reality: A 35%, B 65%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2035
pandemic risk

By 2030, at least one declared pandemic emergency will be for a pathogen nobody expected?

Unexpected Pathogen 50 · Known Threats 50
Reality: A 50%, B 50%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2030
private credit

Private credit will have its first major stress test — with 5+ large defaults by 2028?

Defaults Hit 70 · Few Defaults 30
Reality: A 70%, B 30%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2028
crypto markets

Bitcoin and ETH ETFs will hold $250 billion+ by end of 2027?

ETFs Hold 70 · Falls Below 30
Reality: A 70%, B 30%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2027
US politics

Second-term tariff regime settles into a stable rate band by Q3 2026?

Rates Stable 50 · Still Volatile 50
Reality: A 50%, B 50%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Sep 2026
tech

AI capability: breakthrough or plateau?

Breakthrough 65 · Plateau 35 · crowd A 70
Reality: A 65%, B 35%. Crowd puts A at 70%. Gap plus 5.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap +5 · crowd 70Dec 2028
US politics

US democratic institutions through 2028: hold or crack?

Hold 62 · Crack 38 · crowd A 70
Reality: A 62%, B 38%. Crowd puts A at 70%. Gap plus 8.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap +8 · crowd 70Dec 2028
climate_energy

Climate costs through 2028: absorbed or breaking?

Absorbed 52 · Breaking 48 · crowd A 40
Reality: A 52%, B 48%. Crowd puts A at 40%. Gap minus 12.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap −12 · crowd 40Dec 2028
tech

A publicly released AI model passes 50% on FrontierMath by end of 2027?

Threshold Hit 78 · Still Short 22
Reality: A 78%, B 22%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2027
energy

Palisades nuclear plant starts generating electricity again by end of 2027?

Plant Restarts 58 · Stays Offline 42
Reality: A 58%, B 42%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2027
US politics

US ICE formal removals exceed 500,000 in fiscal year 2027?

Removals Surge 35 · Fewer Removals 65 · crowd A 42
Reality: A 35%, B 65%. Crowd puts A at 42%. Gap plus 7.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap +7 · crowd 42Mar 2028
climate_energy

US grid-connected battery storage capacity passes 80 gigawatts by end of 2027?

Storage Scales 58 · Falls Short 42
Reality: A 58%, B 42%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Feb 2028
tech

An openly-released AI model holds a top-5 spot on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at some point during 2027?

Open Model Wins 75 · Closed Dominates 25
Reality: A 75%, B 25%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Jan 2028
climate_energy

Florida Citizens Property Insurance policy count stays below 2 million through end of 2027?

Pool Shrinks 72 · Pool Grows 28 · crowd A 60
Reality: A 72%, B 28%. Crowd puts A at 60%. Gap minus 12.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap −12 · crowd 60Dec 2027
tech

A publicly-released AI model achieves 85% or higher on SWE-bench Verified at some point during 2027?

Benchmark Cleared 70 · Still Short 30 · crowd A 60
Reality: A 70%, B 30%. Crowd puts A at 60%. Gap minus 10.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap −10 · crowd 60Jan 2028
climate_energy

California FAIR Plan policy count stays below 750,000 through end of 2027?

Pool Holds 55 · Pool Swells 45 · crowd A 45
Reality: A 55%, B 45%. Crowd puts A at 45%. Gap minus 10.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap −10 · crowd 45Dec 2027
us_politics

A US federal court holds at least one top Trump administration official in formal contempt by end of 2027?

Court Rules Contempt 52 · No Contempt 48 · crowd A 44
Reality: A 52%, B 48%. Crowd puts A at 44%. Gap minus 8.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap −8 · crowd 44Jan 2028

Appears in these cycles

How to read this

A mover is a specific actor, signal, policy, or event whose behavior shifts which fork a prediction takes. The direction tag on each prediction row shows whether this mover tilts the odds toward Timeline A, Timeline B, either side, or only under specific conditions. See the method for how leverage is scored.