Every real-world crossing the tracker has logged across nine scaffolds. Each entry names the moment, cites the source, and shows which forks it tilts. Pressure moments are the ones where the floor moved faster than any forecast window said it would.
Direction per event — which pole each crossing pulls toward — is scheduled for the next enrichment cycle. For now, chips show which forks the event touches without claiming a side.
By early October 2026 six US banks had failed — the highest annual count of the decade and triple the 2024-25 pace — though combined assets remained small at ~$1.4bn, reflecting idiosyncratic CRE-driven stress rather than systemic contagion.
Washington and Beijing extended their tariff truce in September 2026 despite average US tariffs on Chinese exports standing at 35.2% covering 89% of goods — a de facto new baseline trade regime after the IEEPA ruling forced migration to Section 301.
The BoJ delivered a further 25 bp hike to 1.25% in September 2026 — the highest Japanese policy rate since 1995 — flagging upward inflation deviation risk and continuing a historic normalization pivot.
The FOMC voted unanimously in September 2026 to raise the funds-rate target by 25 bp to 3.75-4.00% — its first hike since 2023, reversing the late-2025 cutting cycle amid a reinflation driven by tariff pass-through and war-shock energy prices.
Scaffold tag names the domain the event sits inside. Fork chips name which open fork(s) this crossing tilts — the specific timeline questions this moment contributes evidence to. Confirmed events are published and sourced; reported claims are announced but not yet independently verified; leading indicators are directional signals, not canonical crossings. A pressure moment flag means the pace exceeded what any forecast window had scheduled.
Click a title to open the source. Click a scaffold tag to narrow the feed. Click a fork chip to jump to that fork’s current read.