Institutional defender
35 predictions moved
Definition
Actor-class whose role is preservation of existing institutional architecture against erosion pressure. Courts, independent agencies, free-press leadership, academic institutions, professional-standard bodies. Direction typically Timeline-A on democratic-haywire cycle.
Predictions it moves
By end of 2028, most new smartphone photos will ship with built-in cryptographic proof of origin?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By end of 2029, a major AI lab will publicly admit its model got worse because training data was contaminated by AI output?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By end of 2030, global spend on AI watermarking and content-authenticity services will exceed $10 billion a year?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By end of 2029, 'human-written / AI-written / human+AI collaboration' will be a required metadata field in major standards?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By end of 2027, at least 2 major AI companies will differentiate themselves on 'content provenance' as a selling point?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By end of 2028, Wikipedia-style reference sites will carry formal 'human-written only' certification?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By end of 2027, big news publishers will collectively earn over $2 billion a year licensing their content to AI companies?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By end of 2029, at least 10 new countries will have AI safety agencies with real audit power over frontier labs?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By end of 2028, 40% or more of Google / Bing searches will end at an AI answer with no click to the source?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By end of 2027, 'pre-AI' text archives will be officially certified and marketed as premium training data?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By end of 2027, US courts will have settled whether AI companies owe news publishers compulsory royalties?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By end of 2028, subscription newsletters and expert-attested journalism will have doubled their 2024 reader base?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Biodiversity finance will fall far short of the $20B / $30B / year targets?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2028, DNA-from-air environmental monitoring will be official methodology in at least 5 countries?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2030, at least 3 'ecological release' events will be formally documented with measurable dynamics?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2030, at least 3 chytrid-affected amphibian species will go extinct in the wild?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2030, IUCN will formally recognize 'biobank-preserved' or 'de-extinction candidate' as a species-status category?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2030, '30x30' targets will claim success — but most 'new protection' will be weak paper parks?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2030, Arctic ice-dependent seal populations will continue falling?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2030, at least one G20 country or major funder will publicly list species they're giving up on?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2032, average global warming will cross 1.5°C on a 10-year basis?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Global CO2 emissions will peak this decade — but decline will be far too slow for 1.5°C?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
The Arctic will see its first ice-free September between 2028 and 2038?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2028, the WHO pathogen-sharing system will face its first major real-world test?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By mid-2026, the WHO Pandemic Agreement will be formally adopted?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
By 2026, 8 or more countries will have formally rejected parts of the 2024 international health rules?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
The US will finalize Basel III rules by 2028 — in a bank-friendly 'light-touch' form?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
Second-term tariff regime settles into a stable rate band by Q3 2026?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
US democratic institutions through 2028: hold or crack?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
Climate costs through 2028: absorbed or breaking?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
Palisades nuclear plant starts generating electricity again by end of 2027?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
No market signal
US ICE formal removals exceed 500,000 in fiscal year 2027?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
Florida Citizens Property Insurance policy count stays below 2 million through end of 2027?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
California FAIR Plan policy count stays below 750,000 through end of 2027?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
A US federal court holds at least one top Trump administration official in formal contempt by end of 2027?
Quiet path · not yet modeled
Appears in these cycles
How to read this
A mover is a specific actor, signal, policy, or event whose behavior shifts which fork a prediction takes. The direction tag on each prediction row shows whether this mover tilts the odds toward Timeline A, Timeline B, either side, or only under specific conditions. See the method for how leverage is scored.