Washington and Beijing extended their tariff truce in September 2026 despite average US tariffs on Chinese exports standing at 35.2% covering 89% of goods — a de facto new baseline trade regime after the IEEPA ruling forced migration to Section 301.
Barrier-breaking signals
21 of 415 eventsEvery real-world crossing the tracker has logged across nine scaffolds. Each entry names the moment, cites the source, and shows which forks it tilts. Pressure moments are the ones where the floor moved faster than any forecast window said it would.
Direction per event — which pole each crossing pulls toward — is scheduled for the next enrichment cycle. For now, chips show which forks the event touches without claiming a side.
Scaffold
Fork
The BoJ delivered a further 25 bp hike to 1.25% in September 2026 — the highest Japanese policy rate since 1995 — flagging upward inflation deviation risk and continuing a historic normalization pivot.
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate from 0.75% to 1.00% in June 2026 — the first time rates have reached 1% since 1995 — citing inflation above target and yen weakness exacerbated by the Iran war.
The March 2026 FOMC held the funds rate at 3.50-3.75% in an 11-1 vote amid Middle East war uncertainty and sticky inflation. Projections were revised to higher 2026 inflation and slightly faster growth.
The FDIC closed Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in late January 2026, the first bank failure of the year, after a 27.3% net charge-off ratio and 10% deposit flight — an early signal of CRE-driven stress at smaller community banks.
The Fed paused its cutting cycle at the January 2026 meeting, holding the funds rate at 3.50-3.75%. Governors Miran and Waller dissented in favor of a 25 bp cut — a dovish-dissent pattern that would persist for months.
The ECB left all three key rates unchanged (deposit 2.00%, MRO 2.15%, marginal lending 2.40%) at its 18 December meeting, declaring itself in a 'good place' as 2026 inflation projections were revised slightly higher.
Fed resumes cutting cycle after labor-market data softens; first cut since December 2024
First regulator-visible rise in bank exposure stress to private-credit chain; P5-5 private-credit thesis begins to show through
Final US AAA rating lost at Moody's — all three major agencies now rate US below AAA; sovereign-debt pricing regime shifts
First formal post-Liberation-Day bilateral deal; new structural template for Trump-era trade pacts
Largest Argentine IMF program in a decade; FX controls partially lifted — macro reform under Milei formally endorsed
First formal rare-earth export halt by China to US under new tariff regime; raw-materials-weaponization vector activated
Gold reaches new psychological threshold on sanctions + central-bank reserve-diversification bid
mBridge expands beyond initial 4-nation pilot; CBDC-based cross-border settlement scales from PoC toward production
US federal government formally holds BTC as reserve asset — first G7 state-level crypto-reserve designation
Trade-policy regime shifts from WTO-default to active-tariff; downstream supply chain re-pricing starts
Fed pauses cutting cycle after post-election bump in inflation expectations; political-economy independence tested as Trump pressures Powell
Second BoJ hike of post-ZIRP cycle; yen carry trade unwind pressure returns
Crypto crosses psychological six-figure threshold on post-election regulatory expectations
Largest post-COVID Chinese fiscal push; local-government debt swap of $1.4T announced
How to read this feed
Scaffold tag names the domain the event sits inside. Fork chips name which open fork(s) this crossing tilts — the specific timeline questions this moment contributes evidence to. Confirmed events are published and sourced; reported claims are announced but not yet independently verified; leading indicators are directional signals, not canonical crossings. A pressure moment flag means the pace exceeded what any forecast window had scheduled.
Click a title to open the source. Click a scaffold tag to narrow the feed. Click a fork chip to jump to that fork’s current read.