WHO Director-General declared the Bundibugyo-virus Ebola outbreak in DRC and Uganda a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Bundibugyo lacks a licensed vaccine, elevating risk versus Zaire ebolavirus outbreaks.
Barrier-breaking signals
9 of 415 eventsEvery real-world crossing the tracker has logged across nine scaffolds. Each entry names the moment, cites the source, and shows which forks it tilts. Pressure moments are the ones where the floor moved faster than any forecast window said it would.
Direction per event — which pole each crossing pulls toward — is scheduled for the next enrichment cycle. For now, chips show which forks the event touches without claiming a side.
Scaffold
Fork
USDA APHIS confirmed H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b in a Wisconsin dairy cattle herd via PCR and ELISA — first known HPAI detection in Wisconsin cattle, expanding the US dairy outbreak geographic range.
Ethiopia confirmed its first-ever Marburg outbreak in South Ethiopia region; 14 confirmed and 5 probable cases with 14 deaths before being declared over Jan 26, 2026. First Marburg emergence in a new African country since Rwanda 2024.
First binding international pandemic-governance instrument adopted after 3 years of negotiation; PABS system (Pathogen Access + Benefit Sharing) codified
Loss of surveillance signal on single most important bat-coronavirus research site globally — observational blackout continues
First H5N1 fatality in US; CFR profile remains high in human cases globally
First severe H5N1 case in a US resident; D1.1 cattle-independent genotype — spillover pathway broadens beyond dairy herds
Second-ever UNGA HLM on AMR adopts binding 10% death-reduction target; first attempt to put a measurable number on AMR global commitment
First formal frontier-lab acknowledgment that current-generation models offer measurable uplift on biorisk tasks relative to internet baseline — ASL-3 bio-threshold tracked
How to read this feed
Scaffold tag names the domain the event sits inside. Fork chips name which open fork(s) this crossing tilts — the specific timeline questions this moment contributes evidence to. Confirmed events are published and sourced; reported claims are announced but not yet independently verified; leading indicators are directional signals, not canonical crossings. A pressure moment flag means the pace exceeded what any forecast window had scheduled.
Click a title to open the source. Click a scaffold tag to narrow the feed. Click a fork chip to jump to that fork’s current read.