Arctic sea ice minimum on Sept 12, 2026 was 4.60 million km2 — tied with 2008, 2010, and 2025 for tenth-lowest. The last 20 years are now the 20 lowest extents on record.
Barrier-breaking signals
4 of 415 eventsEvery real-world crossing the tracker has logged across nine scaffolds. Each entry names the moment, cites the source, and shows which forks it tilts. Pressure moments are the ones where the floor moved faster than any forecast window said it would.
Direction per event — which pole each crossing pulls toward — is scheduled for the next enrichment cycle. For now, chips show which forks the event touches without claiming a side.
Scaffold
Fork
Study showed under rapid CO2 rise the AMOC can lose stability near 2 C of warming — far earlier than previous slow-forcing estimates. Potential tipping point reachable around 2060 under current emission trajectories.
AIMS 2025/26 annual summary found hard-coral cover across all three GBR regions stabilized or slightly rose versus 2025 — early recovery signal despite seventh mass bleaching event on record globally continuing to affect >80% of reefs.
Mira Murati's Thinking Machines surprises the field by releasing its first model, Inkling, as open-weight under Apache 2.0 rather than as a proprietary API.
How to read this feed
Scaffold tag names the domain the event sits inside. Fork chips name which open fork(s) this crossing tilts — the specific timeline questions this moment contributes evidence to. Confirmed events are published and sourced; reported claims are announced but not yet independently verified; leading indicators are directional signals, not canonical crossings. A pressure moment flag means the pace exceeded what any forecast window had scheduled.
Click a title to open the source. Click a scaffold tag to narrow the feed. Click a fork chip to jump to that fork’s current read.