Every real-world crossing the tracker has logged across nine scaffolds. Each entry names the moment, cites the source, and shows which forks it tilts. Pressure moments are the ones where the floor moved faster than any forecast window said it would.
Direction per event — which pole each crossing pulls toward — is scheduled for the next enrichment cycle. For now, chips show which forks the event touches without claiming a side.
By early October 2026 six US banks had failed — the highest annual count of the decade and triple the 2024-25 pace — though combined assets remained small at ~$1.4bn, reflecting idiosyncratic CRE-driven stress rather than systemic contagion.
Washington and Beijing extended their tariff truce in September 2026 despite average US tariffs on Chinese exports standing at 35.2% covering 89% of goods — a de facto new baseline trade regime after the IEEPA ruling forced migration to Section 301.
The BoJ delivered a further 25 bp hike to 1.25% in September 2026 — the highest Japanese policy rate since 1995 — flagging upward inflation deviation risk and continuing a historic normalization pivot.
The FOMC voted unanimously in September 2026 to raise the funds-rate target by 25 bp to 3.75-4.00% — its first hike since 2023, reversing the late-2025 cutting cycle amid a reinflation driven by tariff pass-through and war-shock energy prices.
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate from 0.75% to 1.00% in June 2026 — the first time rates have reached 1% since 1995 — citing inflation above target and yen weakness exacerbated by the Iran war.
Japan's MoF intervened in the FX market on 30 April 2026 — the first yen-buying operation since July 2024 — as USD/JPY breached the politically sensitive 160 level, with reported dollar sales of roughly $85bn across subsequent sessions.
The March 2026 FOMC held the funds rate at 3.50-3.75% in an 11-1 vote amid Middle East war uncertainty and sticky inflation. Projections were revised to higher 2026 inflation and slightly faster growth.
The US Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Learning Resources v. Trump that the president exceeded his IEEPA authority to impose the April 2025 Liberation Day tariffs, forcing a scramble to Section 122 and Section 301 as replacement authorities and raising $166bn in refund questions.
The FDIC closed Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in late January 2026, the first bank failure of the year, after a 27.3% net charge-off ratio and 10% deposit flight — an early signal of CRE-driven stress at smaller community banks.
The Fed paused its cutting cycle at the January 2026 meeting, holding the funds rate at 3.50-3.75%. Governors Miran and Waller dissented in favor of a 25 bp cut — a dovish-dissent pattern that would persist for months.
The People's Bank of China cut rates on structural monetary tools by 25 bp (1Y lending facility from 1.5% to 1.25%) and lowered commercial-property down-payment minimums to 30%, kicking off its 2026 easing cycle.
Example-shape entry for economic_order allowlist. Real entries capture BIS/IMF/central-bank announcements with structural implications: emergency rate moves, cross-currency swap-line activations, Article IV red-flag findings, sovereign debt restructurings, reserve-currency diversification milestones.
Italy approved a €22bn 2026 budget aiming to bring the deficit to 2.8% of GDP, exiting the EU excessive-deficit procedure for the first time since the pandemic — a notable fiscal consolidation for a high-debt eurozone sovereign.
The ECB left all three key rates unchanged (deposit 2.00%, MRO 2.15%, marginal lending 2.40%) at its 18 December meeting, declaring itself in a 'good place' as 2026 inflation projections were revised slightly higher.
Argentina's central bank announced that from January 2026 the peso trading band widens at the rate of two-month-lagged inflation rather than a fixed 1% monthly crawl — a structural currency-regime shift under the Milei-IMF program.
At the Central Economic Work Conference, Beijing committed to a 'more flexible' monetary stance for 2026 — explicitly flagging further RRR and policy-rate cuts to combat entrenched deflation and property-market drag.
The December 2025 FOMC voted 9-3 for a third consecutive 25 bp cut to a 3.50-3.75% range. Two regional presidents dissented for hold; Governor Miran dissented for a 50 bp cut — the sharpest committee split in years.
UK 30-year gilt yields dropped ~11 bp after Chancellor Reeves' November 2025 budget revealed £22bn fiscal headroom, defusing weeks of bond-market stress reminiscent of the 2022 mini-budget crisis.
Scaffold tag names the domain the event sits inside. Fork chips name which open fork(s) this crossing tilts — the specific timeline questions this moment contributes evidence to. Confirmed events are published and sourced; reported claims are announced but not yet independently verified; leading indicators are directional signals, not canonical crossings. A pressure moment flag means the pace exceeded what any forecast window had scheduled.
Click a title to open the source. Click a scaffold tag to narrow the feed. Click a fork chip to jump to that fork’s current read.