actor

Rising-power elite

27 predictions moved

Definition

Consciousness-pattern template for an actor-class in a rising power whose decisions on technology, military doctrine, trade posture, and institutional strategy bend the trajectory of a rising-vs-ruling cycle. Operates in the B_leak boundary channel per AMENDMENT 47 §MCA-1 — what actors are reaching for.

Predictions it moves

global governance

The first leader of a world federation will be Chinese?

Chinese Leader 10 · Not Chinese 90
Reality: A 10%, B 90%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2100
biodiversity finance

Biodiversity finance will fall far short of the $20B / $30B / year targets?

Funding Short 90 · Targets Hit 10
Reality: A 90%, B 10%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2030
biotech economy

Between 2026 and 2028, overcapacity will trigger 3 or more major mRNA vaccine plant closures?

Plants Close 80 · Capacity Holds 20
Reality: A 80%, B 20%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2028
pandemic finance

By end of 2027, the Pandemic Fund will have billions in pledges but still struggle to disburse?

Pledged Not Spent 70 · Spending Flows 30
Reality: A 70%, B 30%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2027
AI in finance

By 2029, big banks will have their first major AI-driven losses — and new rules will follow?

Losses Trigger Rules 75 · No Big Losses 25
Reality: A 75%, B 25%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2029
fintech markets

The 2025 fintech IPO class (Klarna, Chime, Circle) will underperform the market through 2027?

IPOs Underperform 70 · Market Catches Up 30
Reality: A 70%, B 30%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2027
non-bank finance

By 2028, non-bank finance will dominate the global financial system (53%+ share)?

Non-Banks Dominate 85 · Banks Hold 15
Reality: A 85%, B 15%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2028
central bank digital currencies

China's digital yuan will keep growing — but won't challenge SWIFT internationally?

Grows Not Global 65 · Breaks Global 35
Reality: A 65%, B 35%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2027
China property

China's property crisis will deepen through 2027 — without triggering a systemic bank crisis?

Deepens Contained 85 · Spreads Or Stable 15
Reality: A 85%, B 15%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2027
geopolitics

Taiwan Strait status quo through end of 2027?

Status Quo 68 · Status Breaks 32
Reality: A 68%, B 32%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2027
finance

US private-credit stress visible in bank regulatory data by end of 2026?

Stress Visible 55 · Still Hidden 45
Reality: A 55%, B 45%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2026
geopolitics

Taiwan: Peace or Conflict?

Peace 72 · Conflict 28 · crowd A 87
Reality: A 72%, B 28%. Crowd puts A at 87%. Gap plus 15.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap +15 · crowd 87Dec 2028
geopolitics

US and China: Managed Rivalry or Rupture?

Managed Rivalry 68 · Rupture 32 · crowd A 72
Reality: A 68%, B 32%. Crowd puts A at 72%. Gap plus 4.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap +4 · crowd 72Dec 2028
tech

AI capability: breakthrough or plateau?

Breakthrough 65 · Plateau 35 · crowd A 70
Reality: A 65%, B 35%. Crowd puts A at 70%. Gap plus 5.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap +5 · crowd 70Dec 2028
finance

Private credit cycle: unwind or contained?

Unwind 60 · Contained 40 · crowd A 68
Reality: A 60%, B 40%. Crowd puts A at 68%. Gap plus 8.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap +8 · crowd 68Dec 2028
geopolitics

Russia-Ukraine war through 2028: ends or continues?

Ends 55 · Continues 45 · crowd A 52
Reality: A 55%, B 45%. Crowd puts A at 52%. Gap minus 3.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap −3 · crowd 52Dec 2028
tech

A publicly released AI model passes 50% on FrontierMath by end of 2027?

Threshold Hit 78 · Still Short 22
Reality: A 78%, B 22%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2027
geopolitics

Russia and Ukraine reach a formal ceasefire or armistice by end of 2027?

Ceasefire Signed 42 · War Continues 58
Reality: A 42%, B 58%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2027
finance

NBER declares a US recession with a start date in 2026 or 2027 by end of 2028?

Recession Called 40 · Expansion Holds 60
Reality: A 40%, B 60%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2028
tech

An openly-released AI model holds a top-5 spot on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at some point during 2027?

Open Model Wins 75 · Closed Dominates 25
Reality: A 75%, B 25%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Jan 2028
geopolitics

US adds 50 or more Chinese companies to its chip-related export control list during 2027?

Fifty Plus Added 60 · Fewer Added 40 · crowd A 65
Reality: A 60%, B 40%. Crowd puts A at 65%. Gap plus 5.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap +5 · crowd 65Mar 2028
tech

A publicly-released AI model achieves 85% or higher on SWE-bench Verified at some point during 2027?

Benchmark Cleared 70 · Still Short 30 · crowd A 60
Reality: A 70%, B 30%. Crowd puts A at 60%. Gap minus 10.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap −10 · crowd 60Jan 2028
geopolitics

Russia-Ukraine territorial change during 2027 stays small — less than two percentage points of Ukraine's area shifts in either direction?

Lines Steady 65 · Lines Move 35 · crowd A 57
Reality: A 65%, B 35%. Crowd puts A at 57%. Gap minus 8.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap −8 · crowd 57Feb 2028
geopolitics

US notifies Congress of at least $5 billion in cumulative arms sales to Taiwan during calendar years 2026 and 2027?

Arms Flow 60 · Arms Slow 40 · crowd A 55
Reality: A 60%, B 40%. Crowd puts A at 55%. Gap minus 5.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap −5 · crowd 55Jan 2028
geopolitics

US average effective tariff rate on imports from China stays above 30 percent through the end of 2027?

Tariff Stays High 72 · Tariff Falls 28 · crowd A 65
Reality: A 72%, B 28%. Crowd puts A at 65%. Gap minus 7.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap −7 · crowd 65Mar 2028
finance

The US high-yield corporate bond default rate stays below 5 percent at every monthly reading in 2027?

Defaults Low 68 · Defaults Rise 32 · crowd A 60
Reality: A 68%, B 32%. Crowd puts A at 60%. Gap minus 8.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap −8 · crowd 60Jan 2028
geopolitics

The Western sanctions regime on Russia stays substantially intact through end of 2028 — fewer than roughly a quarter of the restrictions in force at the start of 2026 come off?

Sanctions Hold 63 · Sanctions Fray 37 · crowd A 73
Reality: A 63%, B 37%. Crowd puts A at 73%. Gap plus 10.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap +10 · crowd 73Dec 2028

Appears in these cycles

How to read this

A mover is a specific actor, signal, policy, or event whose behavior shifts which fork a prediction takes. The direction tag on each prediction row shows whether this mover tilts the odds toward Timeline A, Timeline B, either side, or only under specific conditions. See the method for how leverage is scored.