event

Geopolitical escalation

10 predictions moved

Definition

Event-class that marks escalation along a rivalry axis without full kinetic resolution: kinetic incident (collision, limited strike), blockade, embargo, formal sanctions regime, major alliance realignment. Direction typically Timeline-B on peace cycles.

Predictions it moves

geopolitics

Taiwan Strait status quo through end of 2027?

Status Quo 68 · Status Breaks 32
Reality: A 68%, B 32%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2027
geopolitics

Taiwan: Peace or Conflict?

Peace 72 · Conflict 28 · crowd A 87
Reality: A 72%, B 28%. Crowd puts A at 87%. Gap plus 15.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap +15 · crowd 87Dec 2028
geopolitics

US and China: Managed Rivalry or Rupture?

Managed Rivalry 68 · Rupture 32 · crowd A 72
Reality: A 68%, B 32%. Crowd puts A at 72%. Gap plus 4.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap +4 · crowd 72Dec 2028
geopolitics

Russia-Ukraine war through 2028: ends or continues?

Ends 55 · Continues 45 · crowd A 52
Reality: A 55%, B 45%. Crowd puts A at 52%. Gap minus 3.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap −3 · crowd 52Dec 2028
geopolitics

Russia and Ukraine reach a formal ceasefire or armistice by end of 2027?

Ceasefire Signed 42 · War Continues 58
Reality: A 42%, B 58%. No market signal.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

No market signal

Gap 0Dec 2027
geopolitics

US adds 50 or more Chinese companies to its chip-related export control list during 2027?

Fifty Plus Added 60 · Fewer Added 40 · crowd A 65
Reality: A 60%, B 40%. Crowd puts A at 65%. Gap plus 5.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap +5 · crowd 65Mar 2028
geopolitics

Russia-Ukraine territorial change during 2027 stays small — less than two percentage points of Ukraine's area shifts in either direction?

Lines Steady 65 · Lines Move 35 · crowd A 57
Reality: A 65%, B 35%. Crowd puts A at 57%. Gap minus 8.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap −8 · crowd 57Feb 2028
geopolitics

US notifies Congress of at least $5 billion in cumulative arms sales to Taiwan during calendar years 2026 and 2027?

Arms Flow 60 · Arms Slow 40 · crowd A 55
Reality: A 60%, B 40%. Crowd puts A at 55%. Gap minus 5.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap −5 · crowd 55Jan 2028
geopolitics

US average effective tariff rate on imports from China stays above 30 percent through the end of 2027?

Tariff Stays High 72 · Tariff Falls 28 · crowd A 65
Reality: A 72%, B 28%. Crowd puts A at 65%. Gap minus 7.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap −7 · crowd 65Mar 2028
geopolitics

The Western sanctions regime on Russia stays substantially intact through end of 2028 — fewer than roughly a quarter of the restrictions in force at the start of 2026 come off?

Sanctions Hold 63 · Sanctions Fray 37 · crowd A 73
Reality: A 63%, B 37%. Crowd puts A at 73%. Gap plus 10.

Quiet path · not yet modeled

Gap +10 · crowd 73Dec 2028

Appears in these cycles

How to read this

A mover is a specific actor, signal, policy, or event whose behavior shifts which fork a prediction takes. The direction tag on each prediction row shows whether this mover tilts the odds toward Timeline A, Timeline B, either side, or only under specific conditions. See the method for how leverage is scored.