Arctic sea ice minimum on Sept 12, 2026 was 4.60 million km2 — tied with 2008, 2010, and 2025 for tenth-lowest. The last 20 years are now the 20 lowest extents on record.
Barrier-breaking signals
16 of 415 eventsEvery real-world crossing the tracker has logged across nine scaffolds. Each entry names the moment, cites the source, and shows which forks it tilts. Pressure moments are the ones where the floor moved faster than any forecast window said it would.
Direction per event — which pole each crossing pulls toward — is scheduled for the next enrichment cycle. For now, chips show which forks the event touches without claiming a side.
Scaffold
Fork
Study showed under rapid CO2 rise the AMOC can lose stability near 2 C of warming — far earlier than previous slow-forcing estimates. Potential tipping point reachable around 2060 under current emission trajectories.
AIMS 2025/26 annual summary found hard-coral cover across all three GBR regions stabilized or slightly rose versus 2025 — early recovery signal despite seventh mass bleaching event on record globally continuing to affect >80% of reefs.
May 2026 CO2 at Mauna Loa averaged 432.0 ppm (Scripps) / 432.3 ppm (NOAA), up 1.8 ppm year-over-year. Annual peak reached a new ice-core-era high.
January 2026 global surface temperature was 1.12 C above the 20th-century baseline. All ten warmest Januarys since 2007 — baseline shift signal.
Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis placed 2025 at 1.47 C above pre-industrial, 0.01 C below 2023 and 0.13 C below 2024. The 2023-2025 three-year average crossed 1.5 C for the first time in any three-year window.
Cumulative-stress ecosystem reaches regime-shift threshold; recovery intervals shorter than coral generation times
World Court finds climate obligations are binding for all states; new precedent for climate litigation + state-liability framework
Global forced-displacement total crosses 1-in-67-people threshold worldwide; 12-year uninterrupted rise continues
IPCC 62nd session confirms AR7 cycle timeline; tipping-points framework formally debated for inclusion
Direct-measurement AMOC data confirms faster-than-modeled slowdown; tipping-point review pulled forward
Largest cumulative emitter exits Paris on day-one; global climate governance architecture reconfigures
Paris target threshold crossed in a calendar-average sense for the first time; politically load-bearing 1.5C line functionally broken
Climate-finance political compromise falls far short of estimated need; multi-lateral climate governance under stress
Second major rapid-intensification event in 2 weeks (after Helene); Gulf SST at record highs; insurance+infra damage pattern repeats
Lazard LCOE+ 2024 shows battery-storage LCOE crosses $100 threshold in major markets; renewable+storage firm-power economics inflect
How to read this feed
Scaffold tag names the domain the event sits inside. Fork chips name which open fork(s) this crossing tilts — the specific timeline questions this moment contributes evidence to. Confirmed events are published and sourced; reported claims are announced but not yet independently verified; leading indicators are directional signals, not canonical crossings. A pressure moment flag means the pace exceeded what any forecast window had scheduled.
Click a title to open the source. Click a scaffold tag to narrow the feed. Click a fork chip to jump to that fork’s current read.