Barrier-breaking signals

[first] IPCC invites experts to review the first draft of the report on climate impacts, adaptation, and vulnerabilities

Arctic sea ice minimum on Sept 12, 2026 was 4.60 million km2 — tied with 2008, 2010, and 2025 for tenth-lowest. The last 20 years are now the 20 lowest extents on record.

Antarctic sea ice reached a provisional 2026 maximum of 17.59 million km2 on Sept 14, 2026 — tying for third-lowest on satellite record. Four-year low-extent regime now established.

GEUS reported the Greenland ice sheet lost ~173 billion tonnes during the 2025-26 hydrological year, up from ~130 Gt the previous year, extending an uninterrupted 30-year run of annual net mass loss.

By early August 2026, EU wildfires had burned over 529,000 hectares, Spain accounting for 38%. The Avila fire reached ~50,000 ha and was described as the largest in Spain's history. 17 civilian + 8 responder deaths and 330,000 evacuations.

Study showed under rapid CO2 rise the AMOC can lose stability near 2 C of warming — far earlier than previous slow-forcing estimates. Potential tipping point reachable around 2060 under current emission trajectories.

AIMS 2025/26 annual summary found hard-coral cover across all three GBR regions stabilized or slightly rose versus 2025 — early recovery signal despite seventh mass bleaching event on record globally continuing to affect >80% of reefs.