LiveUS civilian nuclear fleetWestern cycleAnchor-complete

By end of 2030, the US commits to at least 5 GW of new large-reactor construction (beyond the Vogtle 3-4 fleet), via either utility PPA or federal procurement?

As of 6 Oct · 22:19 UTCResolves 31 Dec 20304 movers0 pressure moments
Timeline A · Large-Reactor RenaissanceReality
35%
Crowd 50%Gap +15

By December 2030, US utilities or federal agencies have signed firm contracts to build at least 5 gigawatts of new large reactors (like Westinghouse AP1000s or equivalent). This happens because tech companies' urgent demand for carbon-free power pushes utilities to lock in power purchase agreements, and the Department of Energy's loan office finances at least one new reactor project start. NRC permitting accelerates under pressure, and construction begins on multiple units before 2031.

Timeline B · Fleet Stays Flat or ShrinksReality
65%
Crowd 50%Gap −15

No new large-reactor construction commitments reach 5 gigawatts by end of 2030. Tech companies' nuclear demand remains largely unmet through small reactors, power-purchase negotiation stalls over liability and cost-overrun risk, and federal loan programs struggle to assemble financing for projects that face 10-15 year timelines. The Vogtle cost-and-schedule disasters make utilities and investors hesitant to greenlight another mega-project.

crowd 50
The quiet paththe one nobody’s watching

Cyber attack on operating reactor halts new construction permitting and financing, sidelining the entire question.

6%
The read
The underlying structure favors Fleet Stays Flat or Shrinks (65%) over Large-Reactor Renaissance (35%) — the signal is real but noisy.

Two trajectories through us civilian nuclear fleet: Large-Reactor Renaissance and Fleet Stays Flat or Shrinks. The Signals below describe what would be visible if each trajectory is landing; the Levers list what could bend it. The third timeline — the one neither Large-Reactor Renaissance nor Fleet Stays Flat or Shrinks captures — is where the honest scope-limit sits.

Where reality is heading

A, 80% bandCrowd today
Projected reality support to 31 Dec 2028A rises from 41% to about 52% with an 80% band of 33 to 71. B falls from 53% to about 44%. Quiet path near 4 to 6%. Crowd today: A 55%.100%7550250Crowd today · A 50%A ~52%B ~44%P ~4%NowJan 2027Jan 202831 Dec 2028
Reality crosses toward A in early 2028. Today’s crowd number sits at the top of A’s band, possible but optimistic. View as table

The movers, ranked by leverage

01
AI-datacenter demand + hyperscaler nuclear-PPA appetiteA specific actor whose decisions push the trajectory toward one timeline or the other.
leverage 0
Conditional
02
Vogtle-generation cost-containment lessons + modularization progressA specific actor whose decisions push the trajectory toward one timeline or the other.
leverage 0
Conditional
03
Federal loan guarantees + Advanced Nuclear Credit (ANC) tax policyShifts which timeline the trajectory bends toward depending on its direction.
leverage 0
Conditional
04
State-level support(Virginia, Texas, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Ohio)
leverage 0
Conditional

What would change our mind

Signals toward A
  • The US commits to at least 5 GW of new large-reactor construction by end 2030
  • Drivers include AI-datacenter demand, bipartisan DOE loan-guarantee program expansion, and sovereign-industrial-policy momentum
  • Westinghouse AP1000 fleet-order discussion materializes
Signals toward B
  • The US fleet stays flat or shrinks
  • Vogtle 3-4 cost overruns remain the operative memory
  • no utility is willing to repeat the risk
  • Growth happens via SMRs + life-extension only
  • Large-reactor construction remains frozen

Evidence