Energy-poverty backlash: at least 3 European governments fall or reverse climate policy substantially due to energy-cost political mobilization by 2028 (Netherlands 2023 already, Germany AfD pressure, France gilets-jaunes pattern possible recurrence)?

By end of 2028, at least three European governments have collapsed or sharply reversed climate policies after their citizens voted them out over energy bills. The Netherlands' 2023 election already showed this pattern—voters punished the government for high power costs tied to climate spending. Germany's far-right AfD gains seats by running hard against green energy rules. France faces strikes and street protests over heating costs, forcing the government to scrap carbon taxes or lose power. Energy becomes the third-rail issue that stops green transitions in their tracks.

European governments weather the energy-cost anger without major political collapse or policy reversal by 2028. Most stay in office despite public complaint, or voters turn their frustration elsewhere. Germany's AfD grows but doesn't force coalition partners to abandon climate commitments. France manages protest cycles without dismantling its climate framework. Higher wages, falling renewable costs, and energy-price stabilization ease the political sting enough that no three governments actually fall or reverse course on the scale the prediction requires.