LiveEnergy & climate transitionWestern cycleAnchor-complete

Nuclear reactor construction global-additions accelerate to >15 GW/year by 2028 (vs ~5 GW/year 2020s average): China dominant (>10 GW/year), plus India, Turkey, Egypt, UAE ongoing; SMR first-commercial-operation by 2029-2030?

As of 6 Oct · 22:12 UTCResolves 31 Dec 20283 movers0 pressure moments
Timeline A · Sovereignty-First EnergyReality
65%
Crowd 75%Gap +10

By the end of 2028, global nuclear reactor construction adds more than 15 gigawatts of new capacity each year. China builds over 10 gigawatts annually through state-run companies CGN and CNNC. India, Turkey, Egypt, and the UAE each push 1-3 gigawatt projects toward completion. Small modular reactors from companies like NuScale and Rolls-Royce enter commercial operation, opening a new market for smaller plants that don't need massive upfront capital.

Timeline B · Coordinated TransitionReality
35%
Crowd 25%Gap −10

Global reactor construction stays near 5 gigawatts per year through 2028, matching the 2020s average. China's pipeline slows due to financing constraints or grid-integration bottlenecks. India and other emerging markets face project delays from supply-chain breaks or cost overruns. Small modular reactors remain in testing and regulatory approval phases, not yet producing power for customers.

crowd 75
The quiet paththe one nobody’s watching

Large reactor accident triggers construction moratoriums worldwide, erasing the A-vs-B question entirely.

6%
The read
The underlying structure favors Coordinated Transition (65%) over Sovereignty-First Energy (35%) — the signal is real but noisy.

Two trajectories through energy & climate transition: Coordinated Transition and Sovereignty-First Energy. The Signals below describe what would be visible if each trajectory is landing; the Levers list what could bend it. The third timeline — the one neither Coordinated Transition nor Sovereignty-First Energy captures — is where the honest scope-limit sits.

Where reality is heading

A, 80% bandCrowd today
Projected reality support to 31 Dec 2028A rises from 41% to about 52% with an 80% band of 33 to 71. B falls from 53% to about 44%. Quiet path near 4 to 6%. Crowd today: A 55%.100%7550250Crowd today · A 75%A ~52%B ~44%P ~4%NowJan 2027Jan 202831 Dec 2028
Reality crosses toward A in early 2028. Today’s crowd number sits at the top of A’s band, possible but optimistic. View as table

The movers, ranked by leverage

01
Nuclear-permitting speedDetermines nuclear renaissance realized capacity
leverage 0
Conditional
02
LNG-export permit paceDetermines gas-substrate persistence
leverage 0
Conditional
03
IRA + CHIPS + European Green Deal fiscal continuityDetermines transition-investment cadence
leverage 0
Conditional

What would change our mind

Signals toward A
  • energy transition managed via international coordination
  • COP process continues, IEA-led multi-lateral frameworks, EU emissions-trading extended, US IRA sustained, climate finance flows to developing world ($100B/year+ target approached), critical-minerals partnerships (MSP) coordinated
  • renewables + nuclear + gas + storage portfolio approach
  • grid-resilience investment coordinated
  • energy-poverty addressed via development finance
Signals toward B
  • energy substrate sovereignty-first
  • China continues aggressive renewables + nuclear domestically but coal-life-extension continues, exports solar aggressively
  • global emissions plateau at high level, transition still occurs but timeline extended
  • energy security dominates over climate
  • nuclear renaissance accelerated (SMRs, life-extension) partly for sovereignty

Evidence