Through 2035, the Western world runs its alliance formation + disbanding at a HIGH amplitude relative to late-20th-century baselines?

Western nations form and break alliances faster and more often than they did in the 1980s and 1990s. Countries sign defense pacts with new partners, then shift away within months or a few years as threats change or leaders change. By 2035, SIPRI data shows arms deals and military agreements churning at twice the rate of the Cold War era. NATO expands and contracts, trade blocs realign, security partnerships fracture and rebuild.

Western alliance patterns stay relatively stable through 2035, much like the post-Cold War decades. Major powers stick with their core partners even as tensions rise. New agreements happen, but they anchor to long-standing relationships. SIPRI records show alliance formation slowing rather than accelerating. The frequency and speed of alliance shifts remain closer to 1990–2020 baselines than to a quickening pulse.