Through 2035, the Chinese world runs its alliance formation + disbanding at a DAMPED amplitude relative to late-20th-century baselines?

By 2035, China's alliance network stays relatively stable. Countries that partner with Beijing stay committed longer, and the constant cycle of new friendships and sudden breakups that marked the 1970s-1990s slows down significantly. Arms deals continue, but they follow predictable patterns rather than sharp reversals—fewer dramatic reshuffles of who backs whom in Asia.

China's alliance system swings wildly between 2025 and 2035, much like it did decades ago. Countries flip allegiances fast, partnerships collapse unexpectedly, and new coalitions form just as quickly. The pace and scale of these shifts rival the turbulent alliance politics of the Cold War era, with major powers constantly recalibrating their ties to Beijing.