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AI Primacy
Human outcomes
Social structure
| Step | Outcome | % of all futures | % at this step | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Do we make it through? | World transforms | 55% | 55% | |
| Do we make it through? | World fragments | 15% | 15% | Not traced further |
| Do we make it through? | World ends | 30% | 30% | Timeline ends |
| Do humans and AI both persist? | Symbiosis | 22% | 40% | |
| Do humans and AI both persist? | Custodianship | 13.8% | 25% | |
| Do humans and AI both persist? | Extinction | 19.3% | 35% | Timeline ends |
| What kind of world do we get? | Utopia | 12.5% | 35% | |
| What kind of world do we get? | Mixed regimes | 7.2% | 20% | |
| What kind of world do we get? | Dystopia | 16.1% | 45% | |
| What does it feel like to live in? | Individualist | 12.5% | 35% | |
| What does it feel like to live in? | Hybrid cells | 12.5% | 35% | |
| What does it feel like to live in? | Collectivist | 10.7% | 30% |
Step 1 · Fork 01Do we make it through?
World transforms55% if reached55%
World fragments15% if reached · not traced further15%
World ends30% if reached · timeline ends30%
Step 2 · Fork 04Do humans and AI both persist?
Symbiosis40% if reached22%
Custodianship25% if reached13.8%
Extinction35% if reached · timeline ends19.3%
Step 3 · Fork 02What kind of world do we get?
Utopia35% if reached12.5%
Mixed regimes20% if reached7.2%
Dystopia45% if reached16.1%
Step 4 · Fork 03What does it feel like to live in?
Colors inside each flavor: utopia · mixed · dystopiaIndividualist35% if reached12.5%
Hybrid cells35% if reached12.5%
Collectivist30% if reached10.7%
What’s moving in the world
The most recent real-world crossings and which timeline each one tilts.Live predictions
The near-term calls that tell us which timeline we’re leaning into.By 2030, at least 2 major-economy democracies formally exit or substantially defund international institution…Autocratic Drift25%Democratic Hold75%Feeds3 ↓Gap +45Immigration restriction becomes electorally dominant issue in ≥6 EU-27 countries by 2027, driving policy towa…Manage the Decline40%Fight for Births60%Feeds3 ↓4 ↓Gap +45Pro-natal policy adopted with explicit family-form-normativity (bonus for married-family formation vs single-…Traditional Resto…20%Progressive Conso…80%Feeds4 ↓Gap +45International AI-governance treaty analogous to NPT proposed by ≥3 major powers by 2028, though not ratified…Governed AI60%AI Race40%Feeds2 ↑3 ↑Gap −40Religious identification/attendance in US stabilizes or increases modestly among Gen-Z (18-25) by 2028, rever…Cultural-Restorat…35%Institutional-The…65%Feeds3 ↓4 ↓Gap +35IMF quota-reform (either general-review completion or ad-hoc reallocation) achieved by 2027 shifting BRICS+ v…Multilateral Debt…60%Fragmented Debt R…40%Feeds1 ↑Gap −35By 2030, at least 3 additional major economies (Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Turkey, Egypt, Indonesia candidates)…Full Bifurcation40%Managed Rivalry60%Feeds1 ↓Gap +35By end of 2028, non-dollar share of global FX reserves exceeds 45% (currently ~41% per IMF COFER 2024 Q4)Full Bifurcation35%Managed Rivalry65%Feeds1 ↓Gap +35V-Dem Liberal Democracy Index global average declines from 0.29 (2024) to below 0.25 by 2030Autocratic Drift40%Democratic Hold60%Feeds3 ↓Gap +35
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